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India's Union Budget 2025: A Forward-Looking Approach to Economic Growth

The recently announced Union Budget 2025-26, presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, outlines an ambitious vision for India's economic future, built on four key pillars of development while introducing significant tax reforms to benefit the middle class. Let's dive deep into the major announcements and their implications.

Personal Taxation: A Relief for the Middle Class

The budget brings substantial relief to middle-class taxpayers with the announcement that there will be no income tax on average monthly incomes up to Rs 1 lakh. Under the new tax regime, salaried individuals can earn up to Rs 12.75 lakh per annum without paying any income tax, considering a Rs 75,000 standard deduction. This move is expected to boost household savings and consumption, though it will cost the government approximately Rs 1 lakh crore in revenue.


The Four Engines of Growth


1. Agriculture

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of the Indian economy, supporting 42.3% of the population and contributing 18.2% to the country's GDP. The budget introduces several measures to strengthen this sector, including a National Mission for edible oil seeds and initiatives to achieve self-sufficiency in edible oils and pulses. A notable development is the establishment of a Makhana Board in Bihar to boost production and marketing of this specialty crop.

2. MSME Sector

The budget recognizes MSMEs as crucial economic drivers, acknowledging that over 1 crore MSMEs contribute to 36% of India's manufacturing and 45% of exports while employing 7.4 crore people. The government has enhanced investment and turnover limits for MSME classification by 2.5 and 2 times respectively, making more businesses eligible for MSME benefits like easier access to loans and tax subsidies.


3. Investment

The investment strategy follows a three-pronged approach:

- Investment in People: Focusing on education expansion through IITs and medical facilities

Infrastructure Development: Announcing new airports and enhancing regional connectivity

Innovation Support: Establishing a Deep Tech Fund and allocating Rs 20,000 crore for research and development

4. Exports

With India facing a trade deficit of $32.8 billion in November 2024, the budget introduces measures to boost exports, including streamlined credit access for exporters and the creation of Bharat Trade Net, a unified digital platform for trade documentation.

Sector-Specific Initiatives

The budget makes significant announcements for various sectors:

Power Sector: Plans to develop 100 GW of nuclear energy by 2047, with necessary amendments to the Atomic Energy Act

Maritime Development: A Rs 25,000-crore fund for indigenous shipbuilding

Tourism: Development of 50 tourist destinations through state partnerships

Battery: Customs exemptions for 35 capital goods in EV & Mobile battery manufacturing

Fiscal Management

The government has shown commitment to fiscal consolidation by revising the fiscal deficit targets downward:

- 2024-25: From 4.9% to 4.8%

- 2025-26: From 4.5% to 4.4%

The total government expenditure is set at Rs 50.65 lakh crore for 2025-26, up from Rs 47.16 lakh crore in 2024-25.

Market Impact

The budget announcement had mixed effects on the market. While income tax reforms provided some positive momentum, the reduction in capital expenditure target to Rs 10.18 lakh crore from Rs 11.1 lakh crore caused some market volatility. Defense stocks faced pressure due to limited budget mention, despite defense accounting for 12% of government expenditure.

Conclusion

The Union Budget 2025-26 presents a balanced approach to economic growth, focusing on core sectors while providing tax relief to the middle class. The emphasis on self-reliance, infrastructure development, and digital transformation indicates a forward-looking vision for India's economic future. The success of these initiatives will depend on effective implementation and the government's ability to maintain fiscal discipline while pursuing growth objectives.

India's Union Budget 2025: A Forward-Looking Approach to Economic Growth
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Technical Analysis of ABBOTINDIA & SWSOLAR

Stock name: Abbott India Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakdown

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since January 2024, the stock has been moving within a parallel channel on its daily chart. In January 2025, it reached the channel’s support and, after multiple attempts, broke down on January 24. This was followed by consecutive red candles, with the January 28 candle showing significant volume support. If the current momentum continues, the stock may see further decline as per technical analysis. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Sterling and Wilson Renewable Energy Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since October 2023, the stock has been in an uptrend but formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. A breakdown occurred around November 12, 2024, followed by a brief sideways movement. On January 17, 2025, the stock saw a sharp decline with increased trading volume. If the current momentum persists, it may further decline as per technical analysis. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of ABBOTINDIA & SWSOLAR
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Technical Analysis of CANFINHOME & JIOFIN

Stock name: Can Fin Homes Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since June 2022, the stock has maintained an overall upward trend. However, between June and December 2024, it formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart and broke down from the pattern around December 20, 2024. While no significant downward candles with high volumes have been observed, the stock has been trending lower post-breakdown. According to technical analysis, if the current momentum continues, further downside may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.


Stock name: Jio Financial Services Ltd.

Pattern: Triple top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

After its demerger and listing, the stock rallied upward until April 2024, followed by a downward trend. Between March 2024 and January 2025, it formed a triple-top pattern on the daily chart, breaking down from the pattern around January 10, 2025. After a brief retest, the stock resumed its decline on January 17, 2025, and recently it has seen an increased trading volume. Based on technical analysis, the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of CANFINHOME & JIOFIN
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Technical Analysis of TRENT & SHRIRAMFIN

Stock name: Trent Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an overall uptrend but formed a double top pattern on its weekly chart between August 2024 and January 2025. In mid-January 2025, it broke down from the pattern and continued to decline in the next weekly candle. Based on technical analysis, the stock may witness further downside movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Shriram Finance Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since May 2022 but formed a head and shoulders pattern on its weekly chart between June 2024 and January 2025. In early January 2025, it experienced significant downward movement, breaking down from the pattern and continuing to decline. According to technical analysis, if the stock gains stronger momentum, it may move further downside. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of TRENT & SHRIRAMFIN
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Technical Analysis of PFC & SIEMENS

Stock name: Power Finance Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakdown

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock's overall trend has been upward, but recently it entered a consolidation phase, forming a triangle pattern. On 30 December 2024, the stock broke below the support line of this pattern with high trading volumes. Although it briefly retested and closed above the support, it failed to sustain the level. From 06 January 2025 onwards, the stock resumed its downward movement. According to technical analysis, if the downward momentum persists, the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Siemens Ltd.

Pattern: Triple top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock witnessed an upward trend starting November 2023 but formed a triple top pattern on the daily chart between June and December 2024. A breakdown from this pattern occurred on 30 December 2024 with high trading volumes, followed by an immediate retest of the breakdown level. Since 03 January 2025, the stock has resumed its downward movement. According to technical analysis, if the stock sustains this momentum, it may experience further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of PFC & SIEMENS
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Technical Analysis of TVSMOTOR & ZOMATO

Stock name: TVS Motor Company Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an overall uptrend but recently formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart from June to December 2024. It broke down from the pattern on December 30, 2024, with high volumes but quickly retested and closed above the breakdown level. However, the stock resumed its downward movement on January 3, 2025. According to technical analysis, if the current momentum continues, the stock may see further fall. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Zomato Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since July 2022, reaching an all-time high in December 2024. However, it formed a double top pattern on the daily chart between September 2024 and January 2025, breaking down from the pattern on January 13, 2025, with low volume, followed by an immediate retest. On January 20 and 21, the stock experienced significant downward movement with high volumes. If the current momentum persists, further decline may be expected based on technical analysis. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of TVSMOTOR & ZOMATO
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Technical Analysis of HFCL & MCX

Stock name: HFCL Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an upward trend since October 2023 but formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart between June 2024 and January 2025. A breakdown occurred on January 6, 2025, accompanied by average volume, followed by a downward move. While the stock slightly retested the breakdown level, it quickly formed a red candle with high volumes and resumed its decline. Based on technical analysis, the stock may continue to fall further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock experienced an upward trend starting in June 2024 but formed a double top pattern on the daily chart between October 2024 and January 2025. A breakdown occurred around January 10, 2025, but it lacked volume and was quickly retested, closing above the breakdown line. On January 21, 2025, the stock saw a sharp decline with high trading volumes. If this momentum persists, it may see further decline as per technical analysis. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of HFCL & MCX
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Technical Analysis of BAJAJFINSV & SAREGAMA

Stock name: Bajaj Finserv Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock reached its all-time high (ATH) in late September 2024 before cooling down and moving downward. Between November 2024 and January 2025, it formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart. On January 2, 2025, the stock broke out of the pattern with a significant upward movement and large volumes. After consolidating around this level, it posted a strong upward candle on January 20, 2025. If the stock sustains its momentum, technical analysis indicates that the stock may rise further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Saregama India Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

After reaching its all-time high (ATH) in October 2024, the stock has cooled down before stabilizing. Between November 2024 and January 2025, it formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart and broke out of the pattern on January 3, 2025, with significant trading volumes. A subsequent retest briefly pushed the stock below the breakout line, but it rebounded above it on January 20, 2025. If the stock maintains momentum, technical analysis suggests that the stock may see further upward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of BAJAJFINSV & SAREGAMA
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Technical Analysis of NETWORK18 & MAHLIFE

Stock name: Network18 Media & Investments Ltd.

Pattern: Support and breakdown

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

After hitting a high in January 2024, the stock cooled down and moved in the downward direction. It has observed support on the weekly chart by May 2024. It traded sideways for months, repeatedly testing this support line until December 2024. Mid-December, the stock broke below the support, resuming its downward trend. Based on technical analysis, continued momentum may lead to further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Mahindra Lifespace Developers Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock experienced a strong upward movement starting in March 2023. However, between December 2023 and October 2024, it formed a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart. A breakdown occurred in October 2024 but with low volumes. The stock has observed retest of the breakdown level. Since December 2024, the stock has resumed its downward movement, and technical analysis suggests further declines may occur if momentum builds. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Technical Analysis of NETWORK18 & MAHLIFE
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