Blog posts of '2024' 'March'

In India, the fiscal year spans from April to March, indicating that this 31st of March signifies the conclusion of the fiscal year 2023-24 or financial year 2024. This year has been remarkable for the Indian stock market. As we all know, the market's performance isn't consistently linear, and it will have its ups and downs. However, to grasp the comprehensive outcome, it's important to broaden our perspective and evaluate the market's performance over an extended period. And what better way is there than to quantify the performance in numbers and percentages.

Let's delve into some of the most intriguing statistics of the market during the fiscal year. Observing the indices, you can see this year emerging as one of the strongest for the stock market. Throughout the financial year, the Nifty50 surged by approximately 5000 points, signaling an impressive upward trajectory of nearly 29%. This upward momentum extended beyond the large-cap index alone. Remarkably, both mid-cap and small-cap segments showcased even more robust performances. The Nifty Midcap 100 witnessed a surge of around 18000 points, reflecting a remarkable upward movement of approximately 60%, while the Nifty SML 100 experienced a staggering growth rate of about 70% over the year.

Merely gaining an overview of the broader market provides ample understanding of the significant growth witnessed this year. The primary drivers behind this surge encompass the following industries/sectors and few of the top gainers during the year:

Nifty Realty up by ~133%

Nifty PSU Bank up by ~89%

Nifty Auto up by ~75%

Nifty Energy up by ~71%

Tata Motors up by ~136%

Bajaj Auto up by ~135%

Adani Ports up by ~112%

Hero Motocorp up by ~101%

However, amidst this overall positive market trend, what truly stands out are the PSU stocks. To gain insight, let's consider a few notable performers in this sector:

IRFC up by ~435%

REC up by ~291%

BHEL up by ~247%

NBCC up by 235%

Along with the regular market, it's essential to underscore the remarkable success witnessed in the IPO segment. With over 75 IPOs introduced throughout the year, a significant portion of them yielding substantial listing gains, the IPO market segment garnered considerable attention. Also, November 2023 marked a notable milestone with the IPO listing of Tata Technologies, representing the first IPO from the Tata group in nearly two decades. The market has also received this IPO with much enthusiasm. It has emerged as one of the top performers, boasting listing gains of approximately 163%.

Certainly, there were companies that had underperformed throughout the year, with surprising instances such as HDFC Bank being notable examples. Nonetheless, overall, the markets have witnessed a significant upward movement over the year.

This could be attributed to various factors. The market has witnessed a robust rise in retail inflows, with domestic mutual funds sustaining a net buyer position for 36 consecutive months. This trend has been facilitated by a notable surge in SIPs, breaking multiple record highs over the past 11 months. Additionally, there has been an uptick in Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) investments. Furthermore, factors such as India's inclusion in global bond indices and its stable and favourable macroeconomic outlook have also played a role.

With this huge year as a base, it would be very interesting to see how the coming year pans out. There are multiple factors that should be given attention though. This includes crude prices, interest rate policies and potential rate cuts, electoral outcomes, and the recent regulatory interventions from apex organizations such as SEBI and RBI, all of which may influence the market dynamics moving forward. With all of these in the pot, it is bound to make the journey ahead filled with excitement and thrill. Let us hope that we witness similarly favourable years in the times ahead.

If you want to understand the macro elements of the market and want to analyse how it affects to the markets along with other fundamental aspects, make sure to check out my course on Fundamental Analysis. Until next time!

Stock name: Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since November 2023, the stock has experienced significant upward momentum. Beginning January 2024, it stabilized and exhibited a double top pattern on its daily chart. On March 12, 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern, accompanied by average trading volume. Following the breakout, the stock has been trending downward with relatively low levels of RSI. According to technical analysis, if the breakout momentum persists the stock may see continued downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Rounding bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Monthly

Observation:

After reaching its previous all-time high in 2017, the stock experienced a subsequent decline. Recently, it managed to surpass its previous all-time high in February 2024. This has led to the formation of a rounding bottom pattern on its weekly chart spanning from September 2017 to February 2024. February 2024 witnessed a breakout from this pattern accompanied by significant trading volume. Presently, the stock is undergoing a robust retest of the breakout while the RSI indicates overbought levels. According to technical analysis, the stock might see further cooling in RSI levels. However, if the stock successfully rebounds from the retest, it could potentially continue its upward trajectory.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Adani Enterprises launches into metal industry with Mundra copper unit, investing $1.2 billion. Initial phase establishes 0.5 MTPA smelter, with plans for expansion to become world's largest. This project will generate employment and meet rising demand for copper driven by renewables and EVs. The subsidiary will also diversify into copper tubes for air conditioning and refrigeration.
  
  
• Varun Beverages Ltd has completed the acquisition of South Africa's BevCo and subsidiaries, expanding its presence in Africa's largest soft drinks market. VBL issued a ZAR 1,500 million guarantee for credit facilities. BevCo, holding franchise rights from PepsiCo, adds to VBL's portfolio and manufacturing capabilities. South Africa's soft drinks market growth aligns with VBL's expansion strategy.
  
  
• Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) secures a Rs 4,000 crore order from Adani Power for the Raigarh Phase-II Thermal Power Plant in Chhattisgarh. The project involves setting up 1,600 MW capacity with Unit-1 delivery in 31 months and Unit-2 in 35 months. BHEL will manufacture key components at its Trichy and Haridwar plants, enhancing its presence in the power sector.

Stock name: Restaurant Brands Asia Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since March 2023, there has been a noticeable uptrend in the stock. Between July 2023 and February 2024, it consolidated and formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. On February 12, 2024, there was a significant breakout from this pattern, however following the breakout, there was a retest of the stock. Currently, it has completed the retest and is showing a downward trend, supported by negative MACD signal and low RSI levels. As per technical analysis, if the stock continues with the current momentum it me see further downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd.

Pattern: Cup and handle pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Between July 2022 and December 2023, the stock exhibited a cup and handle pattern on its weekly chart. A breakout from this pattern occurred in December 2023, accompanied by above-average trading volume. Following the breakout, there was a retest of the stock's movement. Presently, the stock has rebounded from the retest and is trending upward, supported by positive signals from MACD and RSI indicators. Technical analysis suggests that if the stock maintains its current momentum, it may experience further upward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Tata Group plans to launch multiple IPOs within 2-3 years. Tata Capital, Tata Autocomp Systems, Tata Passenger Electric Mobility, BigBasket, Tata Digital, Tata Electronics, Tata Housing and Tata Batteries are among the list of companies for IPO as the group is focusing on digital, retail, and electric vehicles. This move aims to unlock value and fuel growth after a successful IPO from Tata Technologies. The conglomerate is also considering listing Tata Capital to comply with RBI norms.
  
  
• Nissan announces plans to launch 16 EVs globally in the next three years and designates India as an export hub. Three new models slated for India by 2026 under 'The Arc' plan to enhance competitiveness. Strategic alliances with Renault and Mitsubishi Motors aim for global offerings. Manufacturing to take place at Renault Nissan Automotive India Pvt Ltd, boasting a capacity of 4.8 lakh units annually.
  
  
• CCI approves Adani Power's acquisition of Lanco Amarkantak Power, allowing Adani to gain full control for Rs 4,101 crore. The acquisition, part of a corporate insolvency resolution process, won't significantly impact competition in relevant Indian markets, says CCI. Adani's expansion includes Lanco Amarkantak's two 300-megawatt thermal power units in Chhattisgarh, marking its second acquisition via the IBC route this fiscal after Coastal Energen.

Stock name: Equitas Small Finance Bank Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since June 2022, the stock has seen a significant upward momentum. From December 2023 to March 2024, it stabilized and formed a head and shoulders pattern on its daily chart. A noteworthy breakout from this pattern transpired on March 07, 2024, accompanied by above-average trading volume. Subsequently, the stock trended downwards post-breakout. Currently, it is undergoing a retest of the breakout level. According to technical analysis, if the stock successfully completes this retest and maintains momentum from the breakout, it may continue to trend further downwards.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Shree Cement Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since June 2022, the stock has experienced notable upward momentum. Between November 2023 and February 2024, it stabilized and formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. A significant breakout from this pattern occurred on February 28, 2024, accompanied by above-average trading volume. Presently, the stock is undergoing a retest of the breakout level. RSI and MACD indicators, show that this retest may lead to a reversal. However, as per technical analysis if the stock completes the retest and continues its momentum from the breakout, it may trend further downwards.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Maruti Suzuki plans to launch its first electric vehicle, the eVX, through its NEXA channel in 2025. Designed by Suzuki Motor Corporation, the EV is expected to offer a range of up to 550 km and will be exported from India to Europe and Japan.
  
  
• Adani Ports acquired a 95% stake in Odisha's Gopalpur Port for Rs 3,080 crore from the SP Group, enhancing its east coast presence. The deal includes an equity value of Rs 1,349 crore and an enterprise value of Rs 3,080 crore, with additional contingent considerations. Gopalpur Port's diverse cargo handling capacity and growth prospects align with APSEZ's strategy for integrated logistics expansion.
  
  
• Public sector banks are projected to pay dividends exceeding Rs 15,000 crore for FY24 due to improved profitability, with a record net profit of Rs 1.05 lakh crore earned in FY23. The Reserve Bank of India proposes new dividend rules based on net non-performing assets ratios and total capital adequacy, effective from FY25, to ensure prudent dividend declarations.

As we approach the conclusion of the financial year, there are several important matters to address, one of which involves managing your investments and tax planning. As the well-known saying goes, "A penny saved is a penny earned." Tax planning is essential for maximizing savings and income. The income tax regulations offer deductions for various investments, savings, and expenses incurred by taxpayers during the fiscal year. Let's explore some strategies to help you minimize your tax liability. Let's gather all of those here, along with a few additional options.

Are rent payments considered as expenses? What about interest payments or insurance premiums? Well even though these are expenses, these can still aid in tax savings. If you're a salaried individual, you can claim rent paid as an exemption from your salary income. The House Rent Allowance (HRA) exemption is applicable if it's part of your salary structure. Ensure to check for this allowance in your salary, and if present, keep all relevant documents such as rent agreements and payment receipts handy, as they facilitate significant tax savings.

Similarly, if you've acquired a property through a home loan, you can claim deductions under the head of Income from House Property. Notably, principal repayment qualifies as a deduction under Section 80C. Deductions under Section 80C and Section 80D are also applicable for life insurance and medical insurance premiums, respectively.

To simplify, here's a table outlining common expenses/investments eligible for deduction from your taxable income:

There are numerous calculations and intricacies associated with claiming these deductions. It's important to note that these activities are time-sensitive and must be completed before March 31, 2024, to avail the benefits for the Financial Year 2023-24.

To understand more about such interesting concepts, stay tuned.

Until next time !!!

Stock name: V.I.P. Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakout

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

In October 2021, the stock breached its resistance, initiating an upward trend and establishing a new support level. Subsequently, it traded within a sideways pattern within a parallel channel until March 2024. In March 2024, the stock broke out of this pattern, descending below the support line with higher-than-average trading volume. Presently, the stock is on a downward trajectory, though its RSI levels indicate oversold conditions, which may lead to retest of the breakout. Technical analysis suggests that if the current momentum persists, the stock may see further downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: IDFC Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Since June 2022, the stock has experienced significant upward momentum. However, from July 2023 to March 2024, it stabilized, forming a double top pattern on its weekly chart. A breakout from this pattern can be seen in the month of March 2024 with above-average trading volume. Presently, the stock is declining, accompanied by low RSI levels. Technical indicators suggest that if the breakout momentum continues, further downward movement may be imminent.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• CBI raided five locations in Jaipur related to Swastic Coppers Pvt Ltd over a Rs 48.06 crore alleged fraud in Union Bank. The company and its directors are accused of submitting false documents to obtain credit limits and defaulting on LCs and BGs. The FIR names company directors and other individuals involved in the alleged conspiracy. Searches were conducted at various premises in Jaipur following the FIR registration.
  
  
• State owned PFC Consulting has transferred the Solapur Transmission project to Torrent Power through competitive bidding. Torrent Power was selected to establish the transmission system, with the project-specific special purpose vehicle now under its control. PFC Consulting, a subsidiary of Power Finance Corporation (PFC), oversaw the bidding process, as nominated by the Ministry of Power for selecting developers for such projects.
  
  
• Oil India aims to raise $550 million via a five-year external commercial loan facilitated by Bank of Baroda. The loan, tied to the six-month SOFR benchmark, will fund expansion into petrochemicals, ethanol, biogas, and renewable energy. Interest will be 110 basis points above the prevailing SOFR rate, reset every six months. Bank of Baroda will initially underwrite the full amount, with potential syndication later.

Stock name: Suven Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Since October 2022, the stock has shown consistent upward movement. Between November 2023 and March 2024, it stabilized, forming a double top pattern on the weekly chart. March 2024 witnessed a breakout from this pattern. Presently, the stock is retesting the breakout levels. With the RSI below 50, technical analysis suggests that further downward movement may occur if momentum aligns with the breakout direction.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Jamna Auto Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Cup and handle pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Following the market's recovery post-COVID, the stock witnessed a significant upward surge. Between July 2022 and February 2024, it consolidated, shaping a cup and handle pattern on the weekly chart. Towards the end of February 2024, a notable breakout from this pattern occurred, accompanied by substantial trading volume. Although the stock initially rose post-breakout, it has immediately seen a retest. Presently, in the current week, signs indicate a rebound from this retest. According to technical analysis, a momentum surge from this rebound may drive the stock further upward.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Shapoorji Pallonji Group seeks up to $2.4 billion from lenders, including Power Finance Corp., with negotiations ongoing. The funds will likely refinance debt against shares in Tata Sons. No comments were immediately available from the involved parties.
  
  
• JSW Group and MG Motor India have initiated a joint venture to manufacture electric and internal combustion engine cars, aiming to capture a significant portion of the Indian market, currently dominated by Maruti and Tata Motors. The partnership seeks to create a 'New Energy Vehicle Maruti moment'.
  
  
• The New India Assurance Company, National Insurance Company, United Insurance, and ICICI Lombard have collectively extended a significant portion of a ₹10,000-crore insurance cover for the Indian Premier League (IPL), the world's wealthiest cricket tournament. Premiums have risen by 25% due to a calendar clash with general elections, with broadcasters and team owners being the primary policyholders.

Stock name: Gujarat Ambuja Exports Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

From August 2023, the stock exhibited an upward trend, yet it stabilized and formed a double top pattern on its daily chart between January 2024 and March 2024. A breakout from this pattern occurred on March 19, 2024. Presently, the stock is descending, accompanied by low levels of RSI. Technical analysis suggests that if this downward momentum persists, the stock may further decline.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: REC Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulder pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

During 2023, the stock experienced significant upward momentum. Subsequently, from December 2023 to March 2024, it underwent consolidation, forming a head and shoulder pattern on its daily chart. On March 19, 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern, accompanied by above-average trading volume and a bearish signal was noted on the MACD indicator. Presently, the stock's RSI is at a low level. According to technical analysis, sustained momentum from the breakout may lead to further downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• HDFC Bank has sold its stake in HDFC Credila, its education finance arm, for Rs 9,552.73 crore to private equity firms BPEA EQT and ChrysCapital, meeting regulatory requirements ahead of its merger with Housing Development Finance Corp. The deal, announced last June, comes as HDFC Bank prepares for its fourth-quarter results.
  
  
• Ashok Leyland and Minus Zero have joined forces to pioneer autonomous trucking solutions in India, focusing initially on ports, factories, and corporate campuses. The strategic alliance aims to leverage Minus Zero's autonomous driving technology to revolutionize commercial trucking with tailored solutions, potentially expanding globally as regulations and infrastructure evolve.
• Grasim Industries secures Rs 1.2k Cr from IFC for Birla Opus paints business. Managing Director HK Agarwal highlights collaboration with IFC to enhance sustainability and transition to a low-carbon economy through renewable projects. Birla Opus aims to become India's second-largest paint manufacturer, targeting Rs 10,000 crore revenue within three years, with six manufacturing units boasting a total capacity of 1.33 million litres annually.

Stock name: Rossari Biotech Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Since March 2023, the stock exhibited a significant upward trajectory. However, from May 2023 to March 2024, it formed a double top pattern on its weekly chart. March 2024 witnessed a breakout, backed by average trading volume. Presently, the stock's RSI indicates a low level. According to technical analysis, if the breakout momentum persists, the stock may experience further downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Max Healthcare Institute Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulder pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since its listing on the NSE board, the stock has shown upward trends. From January 2024 to March 2024, a head and shoulder pattern materialized on the daily chart. On March 14, 2024, the stock broke out of this pattern. Subsequently, it has been descending. Presently, the stock's RSI indicates a low level. As per technical analysis if this trend continues, the stock might undergo further decline.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Tata Sons sold over 2 crore TCS shares in a block deal, valued at around Rs 9,000 crore. This has caused the stock price decline to decline by around 3%. This move, speculated to ease debt and potentially avert a Tata Sons IPO, reduced their stake from 72.38%. The deal, managed by JP Morgan and Citigroup, involved offering approximately 2.02 crore TCS shares at a floor price of Rs 4,001 each, marking a 3.65% discount to the previous day's closing price.
  
  
• Aditya Birla Capital plans to sell a 5% stake in Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC through an Offer for Sale (OFS) to meet minimum public shareholding norms. This move involves selling about 1.43 crore shares via the stock exchange. Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC, majority-owned by promoters, manages investments and offers various services with a total AUM of ₹3.24 lakh crore as of December 31, 2023.
• The Supreme Court has summoned Baba Ramdev personally for failing to respond to a contempt notice regarding misleading Patanjali Ayurved advertisements. Ramdev and Acharya Balkrishna may have violated drug regulations. Previously, the court criticized Patanjali, restraining it from advertising medicinal products and warning against making medical claims in the media.