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Stock name: Britannia Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock witnessed a significant upward movement starting in April 2024. Between July and November 2024, it formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. A major breakout with strong volumes occurred on November 11, 2024, followed by a large red candle with even higher volumes. The stock has since continued its downward trend, and technical analysis indicates that the stock may further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Indian Oil Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakdown

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

From October 2023 to February 2024, the stock experienced a sharp upward trend, followed by a consolidation phase with sideways movement. This resulted in the formation of a parallel channel on the daily chart. By late October 2024, the stock broke below the channel's support line, moving downward with occasional high-volume red candles. Technical analysis suggests that if this momentum persists, the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Intellect Design Arena Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been on an upward trajectory since January 2023. From January to October 2024, it formed a double top pattern on the weekly chart and broke down from the pattern in October 2024. Following the breakdown, the stock has been moving downward, but trading volumes remain low. According to technical analysis, if the stock sustains its downward momentum, further declines may occur. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Steel Authority of India Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since June 2022. Between January and October 2024, it formed a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, breaking down of the pattern on October 21, 2024. Post-breakout, it has remained below the breakout line. According to technical analysis, if the stock gains on the breakdown momentum, it may face further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

अमेरिकेच्या अध्यक्षपदी डोनाल्ड ट्रम्प यांची पुन: निवड झाल्याच्या पार्श्वभूमीवर, हाँगकाँगस्थित ब्रोकरेज फर्म CLSA ने चीनमधील एक्सपोजर कमी करताना भारतीय इक्विटींना 20% ओव्हरवेट केले आहे. हे ऑक्टोबरच्या सुरुवातीपासून एक महत्त्वपूर्ण बदल दर्शवते, जेव्हा CLSA ने बीजिंगच्या 24 सप्टेंबरच्या उत्तेजनानंतर चीनचे वाटप वाढवले ​​होते. 8 नोव्हेंबर रोजी चीनच्या $1.4 ट्रिलियन आर्थिक पॅकेजच्या दुसऱ्या टप्प्याची आणि 2025 च्या सुरुवातीस तिसरा भाग देण्याची घोषणा असूनही, CLSA ने नूतनीकरण केलेल्या US-चीन व्यापार युद्धाच्या संभाव्य परिणामांना प्रतिसाद म्हणून आपली रणनीती समायोजित केली.

'ओव्हरवेट' भारताकडे वळणे हे सूचित करते की CLSA ची अपेक्षा आहे की भारतीय इक्विटी इतर बाजारांपेक्षा जास्त कामगिरी करतील. या बदलाचे श्रेय यूएस-चीन व्यापार तणाव वाढवण्याला दिले जाते, ट्रम्प यांनी त्यांच्या प्रचारादरम्यान चिनी आयातीवर 60% पर्यंत टॅरिफची वकिली केली आणि चिनी उत्तेजित केले. परिणामी, चीनच्या इक्विटी मार्केटला 'समान वजन' म्हणून खाली आणले गेले आहे तर भारताला उन्नत केले गेले आहे.

ऑक्टोबरच्या सुरुवातीपासून भारताने $14.2 अब्ज डॉलर्सचा निव्वळ निव्वळ परकीय गुंतवणुकदारांचा ओघ दिसला आहे, जे जून ते सप्टेंबर या कालावधीत नोंदवलेल्या $16.6 अब्ज निव्वळ खरेदीची जवळपास ऑफसेट करत आहे. CLSA ने कबूल केले की भारतातील मूल्यांकन "महाग" राहिले आहे, परंतु भारत ट्रम्पच्या आक्रमक व्यापार धोरणांना सर्वात कमी प्रादेशिक बाजारपेठांपैकी एक असल्याचे नमूद केले. भारतीय अधिकाऱ्यांचा असा विश्वास आहे की ट्रम्प यांच्या अध्यक्षपदाचा चीनच्या तुलनेत भारताच्या निर्यात प्रोफाइलवर कमी हानिकारक प्रभाव पडेल.

“पाऊंसिंग टायगर, प्रिव्हॅरिकेटिंग ड्रॅगन” या शीर्षकाच्या टीपेमध्ये CLSA ने सुचवले की चीनच्या इक्विटींना गेल्या आठवड्यात नकारात्मक घटनांचा सामना करावा लागला आहे. ऑक्टोबरमधील सुरुवातीची रणनीती चीनकडे अधिक वाटप करण्याची होती, परंतु CLSA चा आत्मविश्वास कमी झाला आहे, ज्यामुळे भारताला पुन्हा वाटप करण्यात आले. भारतीय मूल्यमापन अजूनही "महाग" म्हणून पाहिले जात असले तरी ते आता "थोडेसे अधिक रुचकर" मानले जातात. CLSA ने हायलाइट केले की अलीकडील चिनी धोरणात्मक उपाय वास्तविक विस्तारापेक्षा जोखीम व्यवस्थापनावर अधिक केंद्रित दिसतात.

ऑक्सफर्ड इकॉनॉमिक्स, लंडन-आधारित थिंक टँकने असाही अंदाज व्यक्त केला आहे की यूएस टॅरिफमुळे चीन आणि इतर लक्ष्यित अर्थव्यवस्थांमधून मध्यम मुदतीत एकूण निर्यात कमी होईल, ऑटोमोबाईल्स आणि स्टील सारख्या उद्योगांवर लक्षणीय परिणाम होईल. मंदावलेल्या अर्थव्यवस्थेला चालना देण्यासाठी चीनने जाहीर केलेले $1.4 ट्रिलियन कर्ज पॅकेज असूनही, CLSA ने चीनी समभागांना चालना देण्यासाठी पुरेशी शंका व्यक्त केली. अर्थमंत्री लॅन फोआन यांनी येत्या वर्षात बँका आणि ग्राहकांच्या खर्चास समर्थन देण्यासाठी पुढील उपाययोजना करण्याचे संकेत दिले, परंतु सीएलएसएला शंका आहे की ही पावले चीनशी उच्च एक्सपोजर कायम ठेवण्यासाठी पुरेसे असतील.

ब्रोकरेजने चेतावणी दिली की रिपब्लिकन-नियंत्रित सिनेटसह ट्रम्पची दुसरी टर्म, संभाव्य अधिक तीव्र व्यापार संघर्षाचे संकेत देते. रॉबर्ट लाइटहाइझर, ट्रम्पच्या पहिल्या-मुदतीच्या व्यापार युद्धांचे आयोजन करण्यासाठी ओळखले जाते, परस्पर बाजार प्रवेश प्राप्त करण्याच्या उद्देशाने कठोर उपायांसाठी समर्थन करणे सुरू ठेवण्याची अपेक्षा आहे. राज्य सचिव म्हणून मार्को रुबिओसह ट्रम्प यांची टीम, त्यांच्या पहिल्या कार्यकाळापेक्षा चीनबद्दल अधिक आक्रमक भूमिका सुचवते. हे चीनच्या यूएस बरोबरच्या व्यापार अधिशेषामुळे वाढले आहे, जे 2023 मध्ये $380 अब्ज पर्यंत पोहोचले आहे - जे 2005 मधील $70 बिलियन पेक्षा लक्षणीय आहे.

CLSA च्या अहवालात असे नमूद करण्यात आले आहे की भारत, याउलट, चांगल्या स्थितीत दिसत आहे कारण ऑक्टोबरच्या सुरुवातीपासून यूएस डॉलरच्या बाबतीत सुमारे 10% किंवा सप्टेंबर-सप्टेंबरच्या उत्तरार्धात 12% ने सुधारणा केली आहे. निव्वळ परकीय गुंतवणूकदारांचा ओघ सुरू असताना, CLSA ने असे निरीक्षण नोंदवले आहे की अनेक गुंतवणूकदार उदयोन्मुख बाजारपेठांमधील मुख्य वाढीव संधी मानल्या जाणाऱ्या त्यांच्या एक्सपोजरमध्ये वाढ करण्यासाठी खरेदीच्या संधीची वाट पाहत आहेत. भारताच्या लवचिकतेचे श्रेय त्याच्या देशांतर्गत केंद्रित इक्विटी मार्केटला दिले जाते, जेथे कॉर्पोरेट कमाई वाढीचा आर्थिक कामगिरीशी मजबूत संबंध आहे.

ब्रोकरेजने मात्र संभाव्य जोखीम दर्शविली. भारत उर्जेच्या किमतींसाठी असुरक्षित आहे, त्यातील 86% तेल, 49% नैसर्गिक वायू आणि 35% कोळशाचा वापर आयात केला जातो. इराण आणि इस्रायल यांसारख्या भू-राजकीय तणावामुळे ऊर्जेची वाढती किंमत किंवा व्यत्यय, तेलाच्या किमतींमध्ये जोखीम प्रीमियम आणू शकतात. CLSA ने निदर्शनास आणून दिले की भारतीय रिझर्व्ह बँकेने $700 अब्ज डॉलर्स परकीय चलन साठा जमा केला आहे, जो बाजारातील हस्तक्षेपांद्वारे रुपयाचे रक्षण करण्यासाठी सक्रियपणे वापरतो.

Q2 FY25 मध्ये भारतीय कंपन्यांच्या कमाईच्या गतीमध्ये मंदी असूनही, एकूण दृष्टीकोन मजबूत आहे. CLSA ने ठळक केले की भारताच्या इक्विटी मार्केटसाठी एक प्रमुख जोखीम प्राथमिक जारी करण्याची गती असू शकते, ज्यामुळे नवीन पुरवठ्याने दुय्यम बाजार भारावून टाकू शकतो. असे असले तरी, भारताचे ठोस देशांतर्गत मूलभूत तत्त्वे आणि बाह्य धक्क्यांपासून सापेक्ष इन्सुलेशन याला गुंतवणुकीचा एक आकर्षक पर्याय म्हणून स्थान देतात कारण जागतिक बाजारपेठा अधिक अस्थिर यूएस-चीन व्यापार लँडस्केपसाठी तयार आहेत.

In the wake of Donald Trump’s re-election as US President, Hong Kong-based brokerage firm CLSA has increased its allocation to Indian equities to a 20% overweight, while cutting its exposure to China. This represents a significant shift from early October, when CLSA had raised its China allocation following Beijing’s September 24 stimulus. Despite the announcement of a second tranche of China’s $1.4 trillion economic package on November 8 and a third likely in early 2025, CLSA adjusted its strategy in response to the potential impacts of a renewed US-China trade war.

The shift to ‘overweight’ India indicates that CLSA expects Indian equities to outperform other markets. The reversal is attributed to escalating US-China trade tensions, with Trump advocating for up to a 60% tariff on Chinese imports during his campaign, and an underwhelming Chinese stimulus. Consequently, China’s equity market has been downgraded to an ‘equal weight’ while India has been elevated.

This move comes as India has seen steady net foreign investor outflows amounting to $14.2 billion since early October, nearly offsetting the $16.6 billion in net purchases recorded from June through September. CLSA acknowledged that valuations in India remain “expensive,” but noted that India is among the least exposed regional markets to Trump’s aggressive trade policies. Indian officials believe that Trump’s presidency would have a less detrimental impact on India’s export profile compared to China.

In its note, titled “Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon,” CLSA suggested that China’s equities had faced a trio of negative events over the past week. While the initial strategy in October was to allocate more towards China, CLSA’s confidence has waned, prompting a reallocation back to India. Though Indian valuations are still seen as “expensive,” they are now considered “a little more palatable.” CLSA highlighted that recent Chinese policy measures appear more focused on risk management than on genuine expansion.

Oxford Economics, a London-based think tank, also anticipated that US tariffs would likely depress total exports from China and other targeted economies in the medium term, with notable impacts on industries such as automobiles and steel. Despite a $1.4 trillion debt package announced by China to stimulate its sluggish economy, CLSA expressed skepticism regarding its sufficiency to boost Chinese equities. Finance Minister Lan Fo’an hinted at further measures to support banks and consumer spending in the coming year, but CLSA doubts these steps will be enough to justify maintaining a high exposure to China.

The brokerage warned that Trump’s second term, with a Republican-controlled Senate, signals a potentially more intense trade confrontation. Robert Lighthizer, known for orchestrating Trump’s first-term trade battles, is expected to continue advocating for tough measures aimed at achieving reciprocal market access. Trump’s team, including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, suggests a more aggressive stance on China than during his first term. This is compounded by China’s trade surplus with the US, which in 2023 reached $380 billion—significantly higher than $70 billion in 2005.

CLSA’s report noted that India, in contrast, appears well-positioned as it has corrected by nearly 10% in US dollar terms since early October, or 12% since its late-September peak. While net foreign investor outflows have occurred, CLSA observed that many investors have been waiting for a buying opportunity to increase their exposure to what is considered the main scalable growth opportunity in emerging markets. India’s resilience is attributed to its domestically focused equity market, where corporate earnings growth has a strong correlation with economic performance.

The brokerage, however, flagged potential risks. India remains vulnerable to energy prices, with 86% of its oil, 49% of its natural gas, and 35% of its coal consumption being imported. Rising energy costs or disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, such as those between Iran and Israel, could introduce risk premiums to oil prices. CLSA pointed out that the Reserve Bank of India has amassed $700 billion in forex reserves, which it actively uses to defend the rupee through market interventions.

Despite a slowdown in earnings momentum for Indian companies in Q2 FY25, the overall outlook remains strong. CLSA highlighted that one key risk to India’s equity market could be the acceleration of primary issuance, which might overwhelm the secondary market with new supply. Nevertheless, India’s solid domestic fundamentals and relative insulation from external shocks position it as an attractive investment choice as global markets brace for a more volatile US-China trade landscape.

Stock name: JBM Auto Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since January 2023, but from January to October 2024, it formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. In late October 2024, the stock broke down from this pattern, leading to a downward move. After an initial decline, it retested the breakdown level and resumed its downtrend on November 7, 2024, marked by high-volume red candle. If the current momentum continues, technical analysis suggests further declines may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Marico Ltd.

Pattern: Triple top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

After a period of consolidation, the stock began an uptrend in March 2024. Between July and November 2024, it formed a triple top pattern on its daily chart and broke down from this pattern on November 11, 2024. A large red candle with strong volume on November 12 confirmed the breakdown. According to technical analysis, if this momentum persists, the stock may experience further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Tata Consumer Products Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been trending upward since April 2023. However, between December 2023 and October 2024, it formed a double top on its daily chart, breaking down from this pattern on October 21, 2024, with high trading volume. Since then, the stock has continued its downward trend, and technical analysis suggests that if this momentum persists, the stock may see further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an upward trend since February 2022 but formed a head and shoulders pattern from May to November 2024 on its daily chart. A breakdown occurred around November 7, 2024, followed by a large red candle with strong volume on November 12. Technical analysis suggests that if the current momentum persists, further decline may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Hero MotoCorp Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock began trending upward from March 2023 onwards. The stock has formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart between May and October 2024. It broke down from this pattern on October 25, 2024. After a brief retest, it saw a sharp drop with high volumes on November 4, 2024. Based on technical analysis, if the current momentum persists, the stock may see further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Archean Chemical Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Support and reversal

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since December 2023, the stock has been moving sideways, establishing a strong support level around its December 6 close, with multiple rebounds from this point. On October 28, 2024, the stock bounced off this support again with significant trading volume. Post rebound the stock is moving in the upward direction. Technical analysis suggests that if the current momentum continues, further upward movement may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In the previous blog on October 22, 2024 (link for reference), we noted a double top pattern forming in the stock's daily chart. Following its breakdown, the stock declined steadily until November 5, meeting the pattern's target. Since then, it has been consolidating around these levels, showing signs of stability. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Redington Ltd.

Pattern: Parallel channel pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been trading within a parallel channel for an extended period, establishing clear support and resistance levels. Since April 2024, it experienced a downward trend, eventually hitting the support level of the channel. After reaching this support, the stock rebounded strongly, accompanied by high trading volume, with a subsequent green candle confirming the recovery. According to technical analysis, if this momentum continues, further upward movement may be anticipated. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

State Bank of India Ltd on November 8 reported 28 percent jump in net profit at Rs 18,331 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2024. The PSU lender had reported net profit of Rs 14,330 crore in the year-ago period.

In July-September quarter, interest income of the bank increased 12.32 percent on-year to Rs 1.14 lakh crore, as per press release. While, net interest income of the lender grew 5.37 percent on-year to Rs 41,620 crore in Q2FY25, from Rs 39,500 crore in a year ago period.

Net interest margins (NIM) of the bank reduced by 15 basis points (Bps) on-year and 8 bps on a quarterly basis. According to the investor presentation, NIM stood at 3.14 percent in the reporting quarter, as compared to 3.22 percent in a quarter ago period and 3.29 percent in a year ago period.

Domestic NIMs of SBI reduced to 3.27 percent in July-September quarter, as compared to 3.35 percent in April-June quarter, and 3.43 percent in July-September quarter FY24, presentation showed.

The bank said its board has given approval for raising long term bonds worth up to Rs 20,000 crore through a public issue or private placement during FY25.

State Bank of India's Chairman CS Setty during the post earning press conference said that the deposits for the system to grow by 11- 13 percent and credit by 13 -14 percent.

Asset quality

Gross non-performing asset (NPA) of the bank reduced by 4.14 percent in the second quarter of the current financial year to Rs 83,369 crore, from Rs 84,226 crore in a quarter ago period and Rs 86,974 crore in a year ago period.

Similarly, net NPA declined by 4.96 percent on a yearly basis to Rs 20,294 crore in Q2FY25. In a quarter ago period, it stood at Rs 21,555 crore and in a year ago period it stood at Rs 21,352 crore, press release.

Gross NPA ratio of the lender improved to 2.13 percent as on September 30, 2024, as against 2.21 percent as on June 30, 2024, and 2.55 percent as on September 30, 2023. Net NPA ratio declined to 0.53 percent as on September 30, 2024, as against 0.57 percent as on June 30, 2024, and 0.64 percent as on September 30, 2023.

Provision coverage ratio in July-September quarter at 75.66 percent improved by 21 bps on-year. Slippage Ratio for H1FY25 improved by 2 bps on-year and stands at 0.68 percent. Slippage
Ratio for Q2FY25 increased by 5 bps on-year and stands at 0.51 percent, release said.

Deposits

In the reporting quarter, total deposits of the lender increased by 9.13 percent on-year to Rs 51.17 lakh crore, from Rs 46.89 lakh crore in a year ago period.

Of the total deposits, current account deposits of the bank stood at Rs 2.78 lakh crore, which has 10.05 percent on-year in July-September quarter. Saving bank deposit stood at Rs 16.88 lakh crore in Q2FY25, as compared to Rs 16.33 lakh crore in Q2FY24.

Term Deposits (TD), which have a largest in total deposit increased by 12.51 percent on-year to Rs 29.45 lakh crore in July-September quarter, from Rs 26.17 lakh crore in a year ago period.

In July-September quarter, Foreign Offices Deposits stood at Rs 2.07 lakh crore.

"Domestic CD ratio at 67.8 percent. The bank will focus on increasing share of CASA," Setty said.

Advances

Gross advances of the lender grew 14.93 percent on-year to Rs 39.21 lakh crore in second quarter of the current financial year.

Domestic corporate loan book increased to Rs 11.57 lakh crore in July-September quarter, as compared to 11.39 lakh crore in April-June quarter, and Rs 9.78 lakh crore, as per press release.

SME credit grew by 17.36 percent on-year to Rs 4.57 lakh crore in July-September quarter, from Rs 3.89 lakh crore, presentation said.

Setty also added that the bank has a corporate loan pipeline of Rs 6 lakh crore.

Stake reduction

During the half year ended 30th September 2024, Yes Bank Limited has allotted 255,97,61,818
equity shares of Rs 2 each pursuant to the exercise of share warrants. Consequently, the stake of SBI in Yes Bank Limited has reduced from 26.13 percent to 23.98 percent.