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Stock name: Aditya Birla Capital Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Post-COVID, the stock has been in an uptrend. It has only recently formed a double-top pattern on its weekly chart during the period from April 2024 to November 2024. In mid-November, it broke down from the pattern but lacked strong volume support and immediately retested the breakdown level. By the second week of December 2024, the stock resumed its downward movement post-retest. Technical analysis suggests that if the stock gains downward momentum, it may see further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: ZF Commercial Vehicle Control Systems India Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since November 2020 but formed a double-top pattern on its weekly chart between September 2023 and November 2024. In the final week of November 2024, it broke down from the pattern with strong volume support and has been declining since. Technical analysis indicates that if the downward momentum persists, the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In our blog on October 29, 2024 (link for reference), we noted that the stock had formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. It broke down from this pattern on October 22, 2024, and has since continued its decline with strong volumes. Aligning with the broader market trend, the stock has witnessed significant drops from the levels seen on October 22.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: The Ramco Cements Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

As mentioned in our previous blog on November 21, 2024 (link for reference), the stock had formed a resistance line on its daily chart. It broke out of that level, followed by a successful retest, leading to a strong upward movement. This rally propelled the stock to its previous high before experiencing a minor correction. This level might act as a resistance level for the stock. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Oil & Natural Gas Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In our earlier blog dated September 18, 2024 (link for reference), we highlighted that the stock had formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. It broke down from this pattern on September 9, 2024, and has since continued its downward trajectory with strong volumes. Following the broader market trend, the stock has experienced notable declines from the levels observed on September 18.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: PVR INOX Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock hit a low in June 2024 and rebounded, showing an upward movement from there onwards. However, between August and December 2024, it formed a double top pattern on its daily chart. A breakdown occurred on December 18, 2024, accompanied by high volumes and followed by continued downward movement in subsequent sessions. According to technical analysis, if the current momentum persists, the stock may experience further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Godrej Consumer Products Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In our previous blog on November 13, 2024 (link for reference), we highlighted the stock forming a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. The stock broke down from the pattern in November 2024, followed by a retest of the breakout level before resuming its downward move on December 6, 2024. A significant gap-down red candle with high volumes was registered on December 9, signalling strong bearish momentum. If this trend persists, technical analysis suggests the stock may see further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Blue Dart Express Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock witnessed a strong upward movement starting in March 2024. Between June and November 2024, it formed a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, breaking down from the pattern in November with low trading volume, followed by an immediate retest. On December 18, 2024, the stock broke down again with above-average volume, continuing its downward trajectory. If the bearish momentum persists, technical analysis suggests the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Escorts Kubota Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an overall uptrend, reaching an all-time high in September 2024. However, between May and October 2024, it formed a double top pattern on the weekly chart, breaking down from the pattern in late October. Following a brief retest, the stock has been moving downward. If the current momentum persists, technical analysis suggests the stock may experience further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: H.E.G. Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Post-COVID, the stock recovered until October 2021 before declining, establishing a resistance level at that point. By April 2024, it had recovered to this resistance and made multiple attempts to breach it from there onwards. At the start of December 2024, the stock broke out with strong upward momentum and has since sustained its position above the resistance line. If the momentum continues, technical analysis suggests the stock may see further upward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest policy move—a 25 basis point rate cut coupled with hawkish guidance—has dimmed prospects for a year-end "Santa rally" in global equity markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its worst day in over four months, while India’s Sensex dropped over 1,100 points, inching closer to the 79,000 mark.

Although markets had anticipated the rate cut, Powell’s cautious tone and a significantly revised dot plot have raised concerns. The Fed now projects only two rate cuts in 2025, down from four previously forecasted in September. Similarly, the outlook for 2026 has been trimmed to just two cuts. Powell emphasized that the timing and extent of future rate reductions would be data-dependent, signaling that the Fed could "be more cautious" after already lowering rates by 100 basis points this year.

Adding to market jitters, the Fed raised its inflation forecast. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation is now expected to hit 2.5% by the end of 2025, up from 2.1%, and core inflation is projected at 2.8%. Even by 2026, inflation is forecast to be slightly above the Fed’s 2% target, signaling persistent price pressures. This acknowledgment of inflation challenges has led to a surge in U.S. 10-year bond yields, which crossed 4.5% for the first time in six months.

Impact on Global and Indian Markets

Higher bond yields are weighing on U.S. equity markets, particularly interest-rate-sensitive sectors like real estate, utilities, and tech, which rely on lower rates to boost the present value of future earnings. Analysts warn of further declines if bond yields continue to rise, with ripple effects expected in emerging markets, including India.

India’s benchmark indices, the Sensex and Nifty, mirrored global sell-offs. The Nifty breached the critical 23,900 level, raising concerns of further declines to around 23,500. Options data indicates a bearish outlook as call sellers shift their positions closer to current prices, reflecting heightened selling pressure.

Sectoral Impact

The Fed’s hawkish stance and a stronger dollar have uneven implications for Indian sectors. Interest-rate-sensitive industries like real estate, automobiles, and capital goods may face challenges. However, export-driven sectors, particularly IT, could benefit from a stronger dollar.

Broader Economic Implications

The Fed’s hawkish pivot underscores its commitment to tackling inflation, even at the cost of slower monetary easing. The U.S. central bank revised GDP growth projections for 2024 upward to 2.5% from 2%, reflecting resilience in economic activity despite higher interest rates. This “higher-for-longer” rate strategy is expected to influence other central banks globally, including the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

In summary, the Fed’s hawkish rate cut and cautious tone have roiled global markets, with ripple effects spreading to Indian equities. While short-term volatility looms, investors are advised to focus on fundamentally strong stocks and avoid overreacting to global market gyrations.

Stock name: Syrma SGS Technology Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In our earlier blog on November 7, 2024 (link for reference), we highlighted the stock's breakout from the resistance line in late October 2024. Since then, the stock has sustained its momentum, showing a strong upward trajectory. Presently, it remains below its previous all-time high (ATH) but faces minimal resistance, as indicated by the chart pattern.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Sona BLW Precision Forgings Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since April 2023. Between June and December 2024, it formed a double-top pattern on the daily chart and broke down from the pattern on December 17, 2024, supported by significant trading volume. This was followed by a red candle with strong volume, signalling potential bearish pressure. If the breakout momentum persists, technical analysis suggests the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Shree Cement Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has cooled off from its high on February 1, 2024, and has declined from there onwards. Between August and December 2024, it formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart. A breakout occurred on December 2, 2024, followed by a successful retest, after which the stock started moving upward. If the current momentum sustains, technical analysis suggests the stock may see further gains. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Housing & Urban Development Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock reached its all-time high (ATH) on July 12, 2024, before cooling off and moved in downward direction. Between October and November 2024, it formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart, breaking out on November 29, 2024, with significant trading volume. Since the breakout, the stock has moved upward and recently stabilized. According to technical analysis, if it regains momentum, further upside potential may be expected. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Anant Raj Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since its listing, the stock has been in an upward trend, reaching its all-time high on October 16, 2024. After stabilizing, it formed a resistance line near this level on the daily chart. On December 16, 2024, the stock broke out above its previous ATH, confirmed by a strong green candle with significant volume on December 17. Currently trading in its highest zone, technical analysis suggests the uptrend may continue if the momentum persists. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Rashtriya Chemicals & Fertilizers Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock reached its all-time high in July 2024 but cooled off afterward, mirroring the broader market's downward movement. Between October and November 2024, it formed a double bottom pattern on the daily chart, breaking out on November 28. Following a minor uptick, the stock stabilized above the breakout level. On December 17, it experienced significant upward movement with high volume but is currently facing resistance. As per technical analysis, a breakout from the resistance level may lead to further gains. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.