Blog posts of '2024' 'October'

Stock name: Amber Enterprises India Ltd.

Pattern: Cup and handle

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Referring to the previous blog on October 3, 2024 (link for reference), the stock had formed a cup and handle pattern on its daily chart, with a breakout confirmed on September 23, 2024. After a brief retest, the stock rebounded on October 3, moving upward strongly to achieve the target set by this technical pattern. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: City Union Bank Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since July 2024, the stock has encountered strong resistance, keeping its movement range-bound. The stock has seen multiple touch points at the resistance level but was unable to register a clear breakout. On October 22nd, however, a significant upward move accompanied by high trading volumes began, leading to a decisive breakout on October 29th. Technical analysis suggests that if the stock maintains this momentum, further upward movement may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: IndusInd Bank Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakdown (Parallel channel)

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been in a downward trend since January 2024, moving within a parallel channel on its daily chart until October. However, it broke down from this channel on October 22, followed by a significant gap down and high-volume selling. Now at a critical support level, technical analysis suggests that if the current momentum persists, the stock may decline further. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Kajaria Ceramics Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since March 2024, the stock has been trending upward, but it formed a double top pattern on its daily chart between June and October. On October 22, 2024, it broke down from this pattern, leading to a downward trend. If the current momentum holds, technical analysis suggests the stock may experience further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

स्टॉकचे नाव: मणप्पुरम फायनान्स लि.

नमुना: सपोर्ट ब्रेकडाउन (समांतर चॅनेल)

वेळ फ्रेम: साप्ताहिक

निरीक्षण:

डिसेंबर 2022 पासून, स्टॉक समांतर चॅनेलमध्ये वरची वाटचाल करत आहे, सप्टेंबर 2024 पर्यंत हा पॅटर्न टिकवून ठेवला आहे. तथापि, ऑक्टोबर 2024 च्या सुरूवातीस, या चॅनेलमधून स्टॉक खाली आला, ज्यात मोठी घसरण आणि मोठ्या प्रमाणात ट्रेडिंग व्हॉल्यूम होता. . तांत्रिक विश्लेषणानुसार, सध्याची गती कायम राहिल्यास, स्टॉकमध्ये आणखी घसरण होऊ शकते. RSI पातळी आणि MACD निर्देशक यांसारख्या अतिरिक्त पुष्टीकरणे पाहण्याचा सल्ला दिला जातो. FormBottom of FormBottom of Form च्या शीर्षस्थानी

पुढील किंमत क्रिया समजून घेण्यासाठी तुम्ही हे तुमच्या वॉच लिस्टमध्ये जोडू शकता.

अस्वीकरण: हे विश्लेषण पूर्णपणे शैक्षणिक हेतूसाठी आहे आणि त्यात कोणतीही शिफारस नाही. कोणताही आर्थिक निर्णय घेण्यापूर्वी कृपया तुमच्या आर्थिक सल्लागाराचा सल्ला घ्या.

स्टॉकचे नाव: दीपक फर्टिलायझर्स अँड पेट्रोकेमिकल्स कॉर्पोरेशन लि.

नमुना: रेसिस्टन्स ब्रेकआउट आणि रिटेस्ट

वेळ फ्रेम: साप्ताहिक

निरीक्षण:

स्टॉक ऑक्टोबर 2022 पर्यंत वाढला, त्यानंतर मार्च 2024 पर्यंत घसरण झाली. मार्च 2024 पासून, जुलैच्या अखेरीस मुख्य प्रतिकार पातळी तोडून तो वरच्या दिशेने गेला. त्यानंतर ते त्याच्या पूर्वीच्या सर्वकालीन उच्चाभोवती एकत्रित झाले, ब्रेकआउट स्तरावरून पुन्हा चाचणी आणि रीबाउंडिंग. ऑक्टोबर 2024 च्या अखेरीस, स्टॉकने त्याच्या मागील ATH ला मागे टाकून सरासरी ट्रेडिंग व्हॉल्यूमसह मजबूत रिबाउंड दर्शविला. तांत्रिक विश्लेषणानुसार, ही गती कायम ठेवली तर शेअर आणखी वाढू शकतो. अतिरिक्त पुष्टीकरणे, जसे की RSI पातळी आणि MACD निर्देशक पाहणे उचित आहे.

पुढील किंमत क्रिया समजून घेण्यासाठी तुम्ही हे तुमच्या वॉच लिस्टमध्ये जोडू शकता.

अस्वीकरण: हे विश्लेषण पूर्णपणे शैक्षणिक हेतूसाठी आहे आणि त्यात कोणतीही शिफारस नाही. कोणताही आर्थिक निर्णय घेण्यापूर्वी कृपया तुमच्या आर्थिक सल्लागाराचा सल्ला घ्या.

Stock name: Manappuram Finance Ltd.

Pattern: Support breakdown (Parallel channel)

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Since December 2022, the stock has been moving upward within a parallel channel, sustaining this pattern until September 2024. However, at the beginning of October 2024, the stock broke down from this channel, which was accompanied by a sharp drop and substantial trading volume. According to technical analysis, if the current momentum persists, the stock may experience further declines. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Deepak Fertilisers & Petrochemicals Corp. Ltd.

Pattern: Resistance breakout and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock rose until October 2022, followed by a decline through March 2024. From March 2024, it rebounded upward, breaking a key resistance level by late July. It then consolidated around its previous all-time high, retesting and rebounding from the breakout level. By late October 2024, the stock showed a strong rebound with average trading volume, surpassing its previous ATH. According to technical analysis, if it can maintain this momentum, the stock may see further gains. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Dixon Technologies saw a stock decline of around 7.5% following its Q2 earnings report, which highlighted a shift in business dynamics affecting profitability. Despite significant revenue growth of 133% to ₹11,534 crore and an EBITDA increase of over 100%, margins were impacted by a higher contribution from the low-margin mobile business. The EBITDA margin for the quarter was 3.6%, a 40 basis-point decrease from the previous year’s 4%.

The company’s consolidated profit was bolstered by an exceptional one-time gain of ₹210 crore, tied to Dixon’s 6.5% stake in Aditya Infotech Ltd. This gain came after Dixon restructured its joint venture with Aditya Infotech, in which Dixon sold its 50% stake in AIL Dixon to its partner and received a stake in Aditya Infotech in exchange. Aditya Infotech is expected to launch an IPO by late FY25 or early FY26, with increased focus on backward integration and design. Excluding this fair value gain, Dixon’s consolidated profit still grew by 78%.

Segment Analysis and Key Contributors

The mobile division was the standout performer, reporting a 235% increase in revenue compared to last year. Now comprising around 81% of Dixon’s total revenue, this growth was fueled by a surge in orders and the integration of Ismartu, which Dixon acquired in 2023. From mid-August to the end of September alone, Ismartu contributed approximately ₹1,100 crore. The increased revenue share of the mobile division, however, has impacted margins. Dixon’s CFO, Saurabh Gupta, noted that margin support will come from Dixon’s investment in the components business, expected to add at least 100 basis points to margins in the next 12-18 months.

In the home appliances segment, Dixon posted a revenue increase of 22% to ₹444 crore, though margins fell by 60 basis points to 11%. Within this segment, the washing machines division saw monthly production reach 30,000 units, demonstrating steady growth. The consumer electronics division, producing refrigerators and LED TVs, achieved 90% capacity utilization, manufacturing 1.2 million refrigerator units with plans to increase this to 1.6 million. Dixon supplies key clients, including Voltas, Kelvinator, Acer, and BPL. However, the LED TV segment faced a subdued performance this quarter, in line with broader industry trends.

New Growth Avenues

Dixon is expanding into the telecom and IT hardware segments, anticipating 3x growth in telecom revenue for FY25 due to opportunities in 5G Fixed Wireless Access. Plans to double production capacity in this division are underway. In IT hardware, the company has secured partnerships with major brands HP, Asus, Lenovo, and Acer for laptop manufacturing. Revenue from IT hardware is projected to reach ₹4,500 crore to ₹5,000 crore by FY26.

Future Guidance and Strategic Investments

Dixon’s FY25 revenue guidance stands at around ₹32,000 crore, with a capital expenditure (capex) target of ₹580 crore for the year, ₹370 crore of which was spent in H1. As the company ventures further into the components sector, Dixon expects margins to improve over the next 15-18 months, offsetting current pressures from the high share of low-margin business in its portfolio.

Stock name: Nestle India Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since March 2023, the stock has been on an upward rally but formed a double top pattern between October 2023 and October 2024. A breakdown occurred around October 20, 2024, accompanied by strong trading volume. Following the breakdown, the stock has continued its downward movement, again with significant volume. According to technical analysis, this momentum suggests further declines may follow. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Adani Wilmar Ltd.

Pattern: Support and reversal (Parallel channel)

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock consolidated within a parallel channel from December 2023 to October 2024 and is now at the support level, showing a reversal on October 23, 2024. It gained further momentum on October 24, 2024, with strong volume. If this momentum continues, technical analysis indicates that the stock may see further upward movement ahead. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Elecon Engineering Co. Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since 2022, the stock has been on an upward trend, but it formed a double top pattern from September 2024. Around October 20-21, a breakdown from this pattern occurred with significant volume. In the next session, the stock continued its downward movement, closing below the breakdown line. If the stock sustains this momentum, it may see further decline according to technical analysis. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator. Top of FormBottom of FormBottom of Form

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Bajaj Finance Ltd.

Pattern: Support and reversal (Parallel channel)

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock consolidated within a parallel channel from January to September 2024, briefly breaking out in mid-September. However, it failed to sustain the breakout and slipped back into the channel, following the market trend. On October 23, 2024, the stock reached the channel's support level and rebounded, forming a bullish engulfing pattern, signalling a potential reversal. If the current momentum holds, technical analysis suggests that the stock may see a upward movement ahead. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Usha Martin Ltd.

Pattern: Parallel channel pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

In the previous blog (please refer here), the stock was noted to be moving within a parallel channel pattern. It previously rebounded from the support line, rising to reach the channel's resistance line. From October 16th onwards, the stock was unable to sustain the momentum and it has started moving downward, staying within the channel. Further price action of the stock is to be checked to see if it will continue in the parallel channelBottom of Form.

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Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Kotak Mahindra Bank Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since May 2024, the stock has shown some upward movement. Between September and October 2024, it formed a double top pattern on the daily chart, with a breakdown occurring on October 21, 2024, supported by strong trading volume. Based on technical analysis, if this momentum persists, the stock may experience further decline. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock has been moving upward since June 2024 but formed a double top pattern between August and October 2024. It experienced a breakdown around October 16-17, 2024, and has been declining since. A large-volume downward candle on October 21, 2024, signals continued bearish momentum. According to technical analysis, this momentum suggests the stock may face further declines. Bottom of Form

It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Bajaj Auto Ltd.

Pattern: Support and rebound

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock reached its previous all-time high (ATH) in June 2024, forming a resistance line at that level. After several attempts, it broke through this resistance in August 2024, leading to a strong upward move until late September. Following this, the stock declined in line with the broader market's bearish sentiment. On October 21, 2024, it found support at the former resistance level and rebounded with strong volume, forming a morning star pattern. According to technical analysis, if the stock sustains this rebound momentum, it may see further upward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.