Blog posts of '2025' 'January'

Stock name: Hindalco Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

The stock has been in an uptrend since June 2022 but formed a head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart between April 2024 and December 2024. A breakout from this pattern occurred in the last candle of December 2024. If the breakout momentum persists, technical analysis indicates that the stock may see further downward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Adani Wilmar Ltd.

Pattern: Support and reversal

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

After a downward trend since September 2022, the stock entered a consolidation phase starting in July 2023, forming a parallel channel on the weekly chart. By late November 2024, it reached the channel's support level and showed rebound momentum in the last two candles of December. If this momentum sustains, technical analysis suggests that the stock may see some upward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Bajaj Finance, released its business updates for the October-December quarter on January 3. The company reported strong growth across key metrics.

AUM and Deposits Surge
Bajaj Finance's assets under management (AUM) grew by 28% year-on-year (YoY) to ₹3.98 lakh crore as of December 31, 2024, compared to ₹3.10 lakh crore a year ago. During Q3 FY25, AUM increased by ₹24,100 crore. Additionally, its deposit book rose 19% YoY to ₹68,800 crore from ₹58,008 crore.

Record Loan Bookings and Customer Growth
The company recorded its highest-ever quarterly new loans booked at 12.06 million, up 22% from 9.86 million in Q3 FY24. The customer franchise expanded to 97.12 million, marking a significant increase from 80.41 million a year ago. Bajaj Finance added 5.03 million new customers during the quarter, the highest quarterly addition to date.

Brokerage Optimism and Share Performance
Global brokerage Citi reiterated its 'Buy' rating on Bajaj Finance, setting a target price of ₹8,150 and placing the stock under a 90-day positive catalyst watch. Citi highlighted stable loan growth. However, it flagged a marginal increase in credit costs, projected to rise to 2.2–2.25% for Q3 FY25, compared to the company’s FY25 guidance of 2.05%.

On January 2, Citi noted the company's proactive risk management measures, including selective exposure reductions, and emphasized the importance of updates on Bajaj Finance’s ongoing management transition for assessing its long-term prospects.

Following the brokerage's report, Bajaj Finance's share price surged over 5% on January 3. The stock, a top gainer on Sensex and Nifty, rose alongside Bajaj Finserv. Bajaj Finance’s relative strength index (RSI) stands at 52.5, signaling that the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. It has outperformed key moving averages, including 5-day, 10-day, 50-day, and 200-day averages.

Market and Volatility Indicators
As of the latest session, Bajaj Finance shares closed at ₹7,407, reflecting an 11% rise over the past month but a 1.32% decline over the past year. The stock has a one-year beta of 1.1, indicating high volatility. The firm’s market capitalization stood at ₹4.53 lakh crore, with a turnover of ₹69.86 crore from 0.96 lakh shares traded on the BSE.

Bajaj Finserv Performance
Similarly, shares of Bajaj Finserv climbed 8.92% to ₹1,717.45 on the BSE. The stock's RSI is at 38.6, indicating a neutral position in terms of overbought or oversold levels. Bajaj Finserv trades above all major moving averages and has a market cap of ₹2.73 lakh crore, with ₹29.41 crore turnover from 1.76 lakh shares traded.

Growth Drivers
Citi attributed Bajaj Finance’s growth to strong performance in mortgage financing, sales financing, securities lending, and new business ventures. It projected 6% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) and 7% YoY growth in AUM, despite the anticipated rise in credit costs to 2.2–2.5% for Q3 FY25.

In summary, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv have demonstrated robust growth across AUM, deposits, and customer acquisition. With a positive outlook from brokerages and a strong stock market performance, both companies remain well-positioned for future expansion.

Stock name: Mangalore Refinery & Petrochemicals Ltd.

Pattern: Support and reversal

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock experienced a downtrend from February to October 2024, followed by stabilization and consolidation, leading to the formation of a strong support line. Multiple rebounds from this level highlight its significance, with the latest on December 31, 2024, showing a good recovery accompanied by high volumes. This suggests renewed buying interest and, if the stock maintains its momentum, technical analysis indicates that the stock may see further upside. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Praj Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Flag and pole pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock experienced a sharp upward move in the second half of November 2024, followed by consolidation in December, forming a flag-and-pole pattern on the daily chart. On January 1, 2025, the stock broke out of this pattern with significant trading volumes and is currently holding above the breakout level. According to technical analysis, if the stock sustains this momentum, it may see further upward movement. It's advisable to look for additional confirmations, such as RSI levels and the MACD indicator.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.