Our Indian culture has so many instances that teach us about various important aspects of our lives. Today, I am going to tell you one such Legend of “Paal Payasam”(Rice Pudding).
Long ago, there was a king who loved playing chess. Once, he challenged a traveler sage to play Chess. He was ready to reward him whatever he demands if he wins. The traveler is a modest guy asked only for some rice. The sage said, “On the chessboard, one rice grain will be placed on the first square, 2 rice grains will be placed on the second square, 4 rice grains will be placed on the third square, 8 rice grains will be placed on the fourth square and so on for all 64 squares”. The king confidently started adding the rice grains as instructed by the sage. He soon realized that on the 10th square, he needs to place 512 rice grains and the number would further grow exponentially making it impossible to finish the task. The sage won and he revealed his true identity as Lord Krishna. Lord Krishna asked the king to provide Paal Payasam (Rice pudding) in his Temple daily.
This story can accurately explain the Power of Compounding. Isn’t it rightly called the 8th Wonder of the world? Just imagine, how compounding can grow your wealth exponentially over a period of time. Let’s find out how we can put this to work.
50/30/20 Rule of thumb for Budgeting
Before we start putting our money to work, we must analyze our financial position. How much is the monthly spending? Can it be reduced? Figure it out first. The 50/30/20 thumb rule can help us with better allocation of our income. It suggests that we allocate 50% of our income to basic needs - Roti, Kapda, Makaan, and Internet. 30% goes to wants which can include hobbies, vacations, shopping, dining, etc. And the last 20% is allocated to savings and investments. This can cater to various financial goals like buying a house, child education, retirement planning, etc. The allocations suggested in this rule can be altered according to one's needs and financial position.
Emergency Fund
An emergency fund must be kept aside in case any unforeseen situation arises. Since such a situation can be unanticipated, the emergency fund should be invested in a highly liquid investment avenue. Make sure you park in an avenue which is promising your principal amount whenever you liquidate.
An Emergency Fund should comprise monthly expenses for the next 6 months. For instance, if the monthly expense is Rs. 30,000, then the corpus should be Rs. 1,80,000 (30,000*6). You can divide the corpus into Recurring Deposits, Fixed Deposits, and Liquid Funds. Apart from that, some portion of the emergency fund should be kept in savings account for easy access.
Start small with SIPs
A Systematic Investment Plan is a tool for investing a fixed sum at regular intervals in an investment avenue. This will gradually increase the corpus and at the same time compounding will work its magic as we discussed earlier. It will also inculcate a financial discipline. Another benefit is Rupee cost averaging. It simply means whenever markets are low you will gain more units and whenever markets are high you will gain fewer units. So, over the period of time, the cost of holding the units averages out. You can start SIP with as low as Rs. 500 or even Rs. 100 in some cases!
Bottom line
Stock markets can be intimidating but it is essential that we first lay down the foundation. One can gradually work their way up in the markets as they learn more about it.
It is human tendency to imitate success stories. We frequently follow eminent Indian stock market investors who have achieved phenomenal success and attempt to participate in the same kinds of ventures that they have had. While it might not be a fine decision to duplicate their portfolios because we have our own restrictions and distinct investment philosophies, we can learn a few things from their investing and life experiences that will help us plan our own successful investing journey.
Let us have a look at the top investments of the top 3 individual investors.
1. Mr. Radhakishan Damani
Radha Kishan Damani, a low-profile trader, investor, entrepreneur, and veteran known as "Mr. White and White," is one of the top investors in the Indian market. He liked to speculate and watch the stock market tactics rather than getting personally involved in trading because he was a beginner in the broking industry in his 20s.
At the age of 32, he made his first investment and got registered with SEBI. He gained wealth through trading and soon understood that he could make money by investing in MNCs. He wasn't always successful; rather, he had some losses as well and picked himself up after them.
Mr. Damani had an interest in the consumer goods industry. He also acquired the franchise of the co-operative retail chain "Apna bazaar" prior to founding D-Mart.
Mr. Damani's top investments as of the June 2022 quarter include a 67.5% ownership in Avenue Supermarts Limited, valued at roughly 1.88 lakh crores. In addition to Avenue Supermarts Limited, he possesses around 32.3% of VST industries through his various entities.
2.Mr. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
Undoubtedly, Rakesh Jhunjhunwala ruled the Indian stock market. His success has encouraged millions of Indians to trade stocks, and his tale is now used as a case study in nearly all business schools.
Mr. Jhunjhunwala’s lack of capital to trade or invest in was his biggest obstacle. After all, making money also costs money! Additionally, he didn't have the option of borrowing money from friends or relatives and only had 5000 rupees in his account.
His portfolio, which he started with just 5000 rupees, is now worth more than 40,000 crores. He holds almost 5.1% of Titan company limited valuing roughly 12000 crores making it one of the top investments in his portfolio.
3. Mr. Vijay Kedia
Born into a Marwari stockbroker family he joined the family business of stockbroking at the age of 19, after his father's death. While in Kolkata, Vijay Kedia discovered the "Punjab Tractor" for Rs 50, which increased tenfold over the following three years. However, he had relatively little investment in that stock.
Vijay believes that an investor must have three qualities: Knowledge, Courage, and Patience. He has been keeping himself updated since the beginning of his profession in investing by reading business publications, newspapers, and annual reports of companies. He continues to engage in these activities and has developed an interest in watching interviews with managers or CEOs of various companies
One of his top investments in his portfolio as of June 2022 is Tejas networks limited in which he has a 2.6% stake which is roughly valued at 278 crores.
I hope you enjoyed reading the blog and by now you likely have a better understanding of these top investors' best investments, and I hope you find it motivating and inspiring.
Introduction Axis Bluechip fund is the flagship fund of the AMC with an Asset Under Management (AUM) of more than Rs. 33,000 Cr. as of January 2023, this is a huge AUM. The highest AUM was in August 2022 of Rs. 36,979.68 Cr. The AUM has grown multifold between 2017 to 2020 because of its fantastic returns during these years. To give you an idea about the growth of the fund, you must know that the AUM of the fund in Jan 2017 was Rs. 1,942 Cr only. Wow! If this is the growth in AUM, let us check how the returns were.
Returns 1) Calendar Returns
Source: Value Research In the above image, you can see that the fund has given amazing returns in 2014 and from 2017 to 2020. In 2021, the fund fell short to perform with the benchmark and the category. 2022 was not good as the benchmark and category both gave positive returns while the fund gave negative returns. This is where it started hurting the investors. 2) Trailing Returns
Source: Value Research In the short term, the fund is bleeding. But, by now we all are aware that you should invest in large-cap funds with an investment horizon of more than 5 years. So, if we look at long-term returns, it is 12.14%, 15.30%, and 14.64% for 5 years, 7 years, and 10 years respectively which is a fair enough performance.
Risk Return Parameters Similarly, if we look at the risk-returns parameters –
Source: Value Research Mean returns should be higher the better, you can see that the fund is lagging in the category where it is ranked second from below. A silver lining can be seen in the form of standard deviation and beta where the fund manager has managed to keep a check on volatility. But the problem lies in Sharpe ratio and Alpha. The Sharpe ratio is low, and Alpha is negative. Those who have taken the course on the Magic of Mutual funds know in detail what these ratios mean, and how important they are in analyzing a fund. If you have still not enrolled in the course, you can click on the image below –
Portfolio Concentration Now, let us dig deeper and try to understand what caused the problem. For that, we will have to compare the portfolio concentration of Axis bluechip fund with one of its peers. I think this peer can be the SBI Bluechip fund considering that it is the best-performing fund in the peers having an AUM of more than Rs. 30,000 Cr. 1) Axis Bluechip Fund -
2) SBI Bluechip Fund –
Source: Value Research If we look at the above data, we can see that Axis Bluechip fund has 87% in equity whereas SBI Bluechip has a 93% allocation to equity. So, SBI is in a better position to generate additional returns. The allocation to the top 5 stocks is more in Axis Bluechip funds, this creates pressure on the fund manager that these 5 stocks will decide the fate of the fund. So, now it becomes necessary to see which are these 5 stocks.
Top stocks in the Portfolio 1) Axis Mutual Fund –
2) SBI Bluechip Fund –
Source: AMC website I think there is no need for any explanation here. In the portfolio of Axis Bluechip fund, 3 out of the top 5 stocks have generated a negative return, while the score for SBI Bluechip fund is only 1 out of the top 5. Another stock that attracts attention in SBI bluechip fund which is missing from the Axis Bluechip fund is ITC Ltd. I hope the reason for underperformance is slowly getting clear now.
Fund Manager History Usually, when there is a change in fund management, we have seen that the new fund manager takes his time to implement the strategies, which causes the fund to underperform for a brief period of time. Let us see if it is the case with Axis Bluechip Fund –
Source: Morningstar In this chart, you can see that Shreyas Devalkar has been with the fund house since 2017. It is he who had delivered the golden returns of this fund. So, we cannot say that the underperformance is because of the change in fund management.
Will I redeem my investments in this fund? We all know that the stock market moves in cycles and there are ups and downs. Axis blue chip fund has witnessed a positive cycle from 2017 to 2020 now it is time for the negative cycle. You cannot expect a fund manager to keep generating amazing performances every single year. It is not like the fund manager is selecting stocks that are not good. His stock picks are simply going through a rough phase. Maybe now he will relate to our merchandise which says “I Buy… Asa Kasa Kay?” :D. Jokes apart I think it is only a matter of time until the fund reverses to its glory days. All we need to do is be patient. This was all and only about the Axis Bluechip fund, but there is more to this analysis. The lead trader/dealer of Axis Mutual Fund who was also one of the fund managers was recently barred by SEBI in a front-running case linked to the fund house. To know more about the front-running scandal and if this scandal changes my view about investment in this fund don’t forget to watch the video on my YouTube channel. Until then!
Experience Timeline is a visual presentation of a sequence of events, especially historical events which eventually indicates the experience of the entity.
Why Experience Timeline?
Since it indicates the experience of the entity based on which one understands how the company is growing operationally and strategically. Understanding of the entity’s operational and strategic movements is one of the important factors of consideration while performing fundamental analysis of the entity.
About Infosys Limited:
Infosys is a global leader in next-generation digital services and consulting. It enables clients in 46 countries to navigate their digital transformation.
With nearly four decades of experience in managing the systems and workings of global enterprises, it expertly steers their clients through their digital journey. They do it by enabling the enterprise with an AI-powered core that helps prioritize the execution of change. It also empowers the business with agile digital at scale to deliver unprecedented levels of performance and customer delight. Their always-on learning agenda drives their continuous improvement through building and transferring digital skills, expertise, and ideas from their innovation ecosystem.
Experience Timeline of Infosys:
Infosys was established in 1981 by Mr. Narayana Murthy and 6 engineers in Pune. It was listed on NSE and NASDAQ in 1995 and 1999 respectively. The major landmark of Revenue of US$ 1 Bn. achieved by the entity in 2004 – within 24 years of establishment. Along with such landmarks, the entity acquired many global entities in this industry to expand the entity at a global level.
Conclusion:
Understanding of operational and strategic experience is one of the important points in fundamental analysis of the entity along with other operational and financial review points.
Since the COVID-19 pandemic and global meltdown in stock markets, the whole Indian banking sector has underperformed due to fear of NPA. Even, RBI mandated banks to make COVID-19 related provisions in their books and instructed them to not declare any dividend till the end of September month. Before investing in banks, investors need to watch out for some of the key ratios, we have taken the top 5 banks as our examples based on market capitalization. Below are some of the important parameters to watch out for:
1. On the basis of Liquidity of Banks - Capital Adequacy Ratio:
Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is simply the core capital of the bank. CAR is measured based on Tier-1 capital and Tier 2 capital. Tier 1 capital is such a capital where a bank can absorb the losses without disturbing normal business operations. Thus, it provides a liquidity cushion to the bank and it also protects the depositors. Tier 2 capital is such a capital where the bank can absorb the losses in the event of bankruptcy of a bank, it provides lesser protection to the depositors. Banks are required to maintain a minimum CAR of 10.5% including a Capital Conservation Buffer of 2.5% as per Basel III norms.
2. On the basis of Asset Quality:
Bank’s asset quality matter’s the most, higher the NPA ratio, the worst the case, NPA’s ultimately wipe out the capital of the bank, thus impacting the CAR ratio.NPA means the default of interest and the principal amount by the borrower. As per RBI, banks classify a borrower’s account as NPA when the interest due on the loan is not paid within 90 days. Investors need to analyze both Gross and Net NPA ratios Gross Non-Performing Assets as a % of Gross Advances (GNPA): GNPA is the sum of all the types of unpaid loans by the borrowers. Net Non-Performing Assets as a % of Net Advances (NNPA): NNPA is the sum of unpaid loans less the provision made for these bad loans.
3. On the basis of Profitability:
One of the key profitability ratios to watch out for is Net interest Margin- NIM. Since the bank’s business model is to raise funds from depositors and lend it to individuals and businesses, it receives interest on an amount lent and pays interest on the funds raised via various routes. Thus, the difference between interest earned and interest expended over its average earning assets is called net interest earned, it is popularly expressed in % form and is popularly known as NIM.
In living life, everything that the person is worried about losing tries to ensure that by something. Insurance companies are the one who provides such risk management to individuals, businesses, and institutional clients. This is done through various types of insurance products that customers look for i.e. life insurance, health or medical insurance, car insurance, etc. The basic principle of all such products remains the same that the insurer guarantees payment or reimbursement in the event of losses for the insured. From an investor’s perspective, investing in certain kinds of insurance companies like life insurance may appear risky as these businesses consist of long-term products and services, and also require high initial acquisition cost.
Therefore, while analyzing such companies’ certain business growth parameters need to be considered over the years and margins. We have covered in this blog such 3 parameters for the top 3 life insurance companies in India to take you through their short analysis to understand and compare these companies with each other. We have selected these top 3 companies based on the market capitalization as of 26th November 2020.
Embeded Value [EV]
This is the measure of the value of the life insurance company. This measure indicates the expected profitability from the current underwritten policies and current net worth. The embedded value of the company is calculated as the sum of adjusted net worth and the discounted value of profits from in-force policies. Below is the comparison of the embedded value of the top 3 insurance companies:
New Business Premiums [NBP]
As the name indicates, this is the value of premium acquired by the entity from new policies for a particular year. So, the premium earned from the new contracts in a given financial year is referred to as the new business premium for an insurance company. Very natural to understand, if the company is able to grow at a higher rate with NBP, the business perspectives seem to be on the high good side.
Below is the comparison of NBP for the top 3 life insurance companies:
New Business Margin [NBM] This is a measure of profit margin used by the insurance companies for the new business received during a particular financial year. NBM is the ratio of the value of the new business to the present value of premium income. It is calculated by dividing the profit on the new business by the present value of the new business or Embedded value. Conclusion:
Based on the above analysis, one can compare these parameters for the top 3 life insurance companies and understand the fundamental analysis of such companies. Rather, these are not the only parameters to be considered for investment decision making, so consideration of other factors along with these is important.
If you check the financial statements of UTI Asset Management Company of Q1 of FY 2021 compared to Q1 of FY 2020, below is the position of the change in revenue.
In the above table, you may notice the revenue has increased by 11.63% for Q1 YoY. Total Revenue from Operations includes gains/ losses from fair value changes. Now, let’s understand the meaning of “Fair Value”
Meaning of Fair Value: Fair value is the price that would be received to sell an asset or paid to transfer a liability in an orderly transaction between market participants as on date. In simple words, it can be substituted with the word, “current market price.” Fair Values are calculated according to IND AS 113.
Now you might be wondering why are we discussing “Fair Value?”
Due to COVID-19, the equity and mutual fund markets were very volatile in Q1 of 2021 which resulted in a significant change in the fair values of such investment instruments. You might be aware of the “V shape recovery” which the market witnessed. Due to this, it’s probable that the company might have gained significantly on such investments. But since these gains are temporary but not permanent in nature, one should not consider these while analyzing the revenue from operations of the company for fundamental analysis and growth perspective along with the impact of the same on other parameters like PBT, PAT, etc.
Let’s consider the following example. You have equity shares of Company A which you have purchased at Rs. 1000. The LTP as of 31st March is Rs. 1,800. As per Ind AS, you have to value it at the market value (LTP) in your balance sheet. So, for this, you will have to increase the asset value by Rs. 800. The 2nd impact of gain of this transaction will reflect in the profit or loss account. In IND AS terms, it’s not necessary that every such gain will reflect in profit or loss account only. Some assets are recorded through Other Comprehensive Income i.e. OCI Statement which is the second part of the statement of profit or loss which is placed after the Profit after tax element. So, a lot of such factors are determinable in such cases.
Now let's assume a case that in the same company “Total Revenue from Operations” is Rs. 1,200 of which the gain due to “Fair Value changes” is Rs.800. In such a case, its “Revenue from core operations” will be Rs. 400 only. So, I hope you have understood that one should focus on “Revenue adjusted with Fair Value changes” rather than “Total Revenue from Operations.”
Coming back to UTI AMC, its Revenue after Fair Value changes is as follows:
After ignoring one item of gain due to fair value changes, the position of revenue differs significantly.
Conclusion:
Based on the above, you must have understood the result of significant change in revenue pre and post consideration of the gain due to fair value changes in the case of UTI AMC on change in revenue from operations for Q1 of FY 2021 and FY 2020.
Note: We have not covered the technical perspectives like financial assets and relevant Ind AS which deals with this concept like IND AS 32, IND AS 109, and IND AS 113. The above blog writes up is only for the purpose of basic understanding about the gain or loss due to fair value changes. There are various other factors that can be considered and dependent ones, based on accounting policies and estimates followed by the companies.
Equitas Small Finance Bank is the largest SFB in India in terms of the number of banking outlets, and the second-largest SFB in India in terms of assets under management and total deposits in Fiscal 2019. They have a market share of 16% in terms of Assets Under Management in India. It is a subsidiary of Equitas Holding Limited (EHL).
IPO season continues with the 12th IPO post lockdown this year. IPO subscription starts from Oct 20, 2020, till Oct 22, 2020. The IPO price range is from Rs. 32 to Rs. 33 per share. The minimum market lot is 450 shares and in multiples thereof. At the upper price band, the subscription amount for 1 lot is Rs. 14,850. The shares are expected to list on Nov 2, 2020.
We already had a detailed discussion regarding the IPO in our video on YouTube. Here, are some additional points that we need to know about the bank.
SWOT Analysis of the bank:
Litigations against the bank:
Although no major litigation cases are pending against the bank, we found that RBI has taken action against the Bank on multiple occasions.
1) In 2016, Bank received final approval to carry out SFB business, subject to a condition to listing the bank within 3 years as per para 6 of the SFB Licensing Guidelines. In 2019, RBI found that the Bank violated the timeline so given in the above-mentioned para and imposed regulatory actions on the Bank with immediate effect. Accordingly, Bank was not permitted to open any new branches till further advice, and the remuneration of MD and CEO stood frozen at the existing level until the listing is done.
2) In 2018, Bank had violated the SFB Licensing Guidelines and provisions of the Banking Regulation Act by distributing mutual fund units, pension products, insurance products, and other such financial products/services on a non-risk sharing basis without taking prior approval of the RBI, as required under the SFB Licensing Guidelines. RBI levied a penalty of Rs. 1.00 million on our Bank for such omission.
3) Again in 2019, Bank increased its Authorized Capital without seeking exemption from RBI. The Rule - section 12(1)(i) of Banking Regulation Act - banking company can carry on business in India subject to the condition that the subscribed capital of the company is not less than one-half of its authorized capital, and the paid-up capital of the company is not less than one-half of its subscribed capital. On January 31, 2019, the bank increased the authorized share capital from Rs. 11,550 million to Rs.25,000 million by passing a resolution, when it had a paid-up capital of Rs. 10,059.4 million. So, the Bank violated the rules. RBI through its letter to the bank noted with serious concern that the Bank had neither noticed non-compliance with the provisions nor sought exemption from the RBI. RBI further advised the bank to be more careful in the future. Finally, on Nov 07, 2019, the bank reduced its authorized capital to 17,000 million to comply with the provisions.
The point here is, this highlights a weak compliance team of the bank. In the future, it might lead to the risk of unnecessary penalties due to non-compliance with RBI norms. If you want to know whether I am applying to the IPO or not, check my Instagram Live at 12 noon on Oct 22, 2020.
A credit default swap (CDS) is a financial contract between two parties in which one party (the protection buyer) pays a periodic fee to the other party (the protection seller) in exchange for protection against the risk of default by a third party (the reference entity) on a particular debt obligation. In simpler terms, a CDS is a type of insurance policy on a particular bond or loan. If a credit event (such as default, bankruptcy, or restructuring) occurs with respect to the reference entity, the protection buyer receives a payout from the protection seller to compensate for the loss. The payout is usually the difference between the face value of the debt obligation and its market value after the credit event. Let us understand CDS with an example Suppose that Company XYZ issues $1 billion in corporate bonds with a maturity of 10 years. Investor A purchases $10 million of these bonds. However, Investor A is concerned about the possibility of Company XYZ defaulting on its bond payments, which would result in the loss of its investment. To protect themselves against this risk, Investor A decides to enter into a credit default swap with Bank B. Under the terms of the CDS, Investor A pays Bank B a periodic fee (say, 2% per year) for the duration of the bond term, in exchange for Bank B agreeing to compensate them if Company XYZ defaults on the bonds. Bank B becomes the protection seller, while Investor A becomes the protection buyer. Now, let's say that five years into the bond term, Company XYZ experiences financial difficulties and misses a bond payment. This is considered a credit event, and Investor A can now make a claim on the CDS with Bank B. Bank B will then pay Investor A an amount equal to the loss incurred from the bond default. For example, if the value of the bonds drops to $8 million due to the default, Bank B will pay Investor A $2 million (the difference between the original $10 million investment and the current $8 million market value of the bonds). In this way, Investor A has effectively transferred the risk of default to Bank B in exchange for a periodic fee. Bank B, on the other hand, earns income from assuming the risk of default and can use the fee to offset any potential losses.
Recently the price of Credit Suisse’s one-year credit default swaps surged which means the premium for securing these bonds is rising. Generally, CDS are high for risky bonds, and as the price of Credit Suisse’s one-year credit default swaps is rising so are the bonds risky? Is there a risk of default and if yes what would be the impact on India if such an event occurs? These are some of the important questions associated with the rising CDS of Credit Suisse and to know the answers to all such questions do checkout the below YouTube video on my channel
Conclusion:
