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Stock name: Bata India Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern

Time frame: Monthly

Observation:

The stock trended upwards until its peak in 2021, following which it experienced a decline. From October 2020 to February 2024, a head and shoulders pattern emerged on its monthly chart. February 2024 witnessed a breakout from this pattern, with slightly above-average trading volume. Presently, the stock is on a downward trajectory, accompanied by a low RSI level. Technical analysis suggests that if this current momentum persists, the stock may continue its downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Finolex Industries Ltd.

Pattern: Cup and handle pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

From October 2021 to April 2024, the stock's weekly chart has formed a cup and handle pattern formation. A breakout from this pattern occurred in early April 2024, backed by higher-than-average trading volume and a positive MACD indicator. Presently, the stock is undergoing a retest of the breakout level following the breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of the stock is currently at a favourable level. According to technical analysis, a successful bounce back from this retest may potentially propel the stock further upward.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Hyundai and Kia team up with Exide Energy Solutions in India to localize EV battery production, focusing on lithium-iron-phosphate cells. This move supports their expansion plans for the Indian EV market and aims to pioneer domestically produced batteries. The collaboration is crucial for cost competitiveness and aligns with India's carbon neutrality goals.
  
  
• ICICI Bank extends a Rs 2,675 crore debt facility to Tata Steel for three years to repay existing debt. Tata Steel raises Rs 2,700 crore through unsecured fixed-rate bonds at 7.79%, with Niva Bupa Health Insurance investing Rs 25 crore. Both investors are set to receive a bullet payment on March 27, 2027.
  
  
• Voltas surpasses 2-million-unit sales in FY24, credited to consistent demand and robust distribution networks. This marks the first time a company in India's domestic market has achieved this milestone. Despite lower sales in the March quarter, Voltas sees a significant 72% volume growth in AC sales.

With the introduction of new tax regime for individuals in 2020, the govt. gave an option to choose between the old tax regime and the new tax regime. However, the new regime got its real glow when the government introduced various incentives in the 2023 Budget to encourage the adoption of the new regime.

These changes hint that the government is encouraging taxpayers to transition to the new regime and eventually phase out the old one. Currently, the new regime is now the default tax regime, but the old tax regime will continue to exist.

How is the new regime different from the old regime, let us understand:

1. Under the old regime, taxpayers can claim substantial deductions, including those specified in Section 80C, Section 80D, and Section 80TTA of the Income Tax Act. Conversely, individuals choosing the new regime can enjoy reduced tax rates depending on their income bracket, without as many deductions available.
2. Different tax rates:

3. Higher Tax Rebate Limit: Full tax rebate on an income up to ₹7 lakhs has been introduced. Whereas this threshold is ₹5 lakhs under the old tax regime. This means that taxpayers with an income of up to ₹7 lakhs will not have to pay any tax at all under the new tax regime!

Difference Between Old Vs New Tax Regime: Which is Better?

The decision to switch to the new or remain in the old tax regime or which regime is better for you shall be based on the tax savings deductions and exemptions you are eligible for in the old tax regime. To make your decision making easier, below is a table capturing breakeven point for various income levels for a salaried individual below 60 years of age. This can be used to determine which regime to choose.

What deductions and exemptions are allowed under the new tax regime?

Here is a comparison between the deductions and exemptions available under the new and the old tax regime:

To understand more about such interesting concepts, stay tuned.

Until next time !!!

Stock name: Coromandel International Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since December 2023, the stock has experienced a downward trend. Subsequently, it consolidated and established a double bottom pattern on its daily chart. On April 2, 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern, backed by a positive MACD signal. Following the breakout, the stock has exhibited upward momentum, accompanied by high RSI levels. According to technical analysis, if the current momentum persists, further upward movement may be anticipated.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Punjab National Bank

Pattern: Rounding bottom pattern

Time frame: Monthly

Observation:

The stock has seen a prolonged downward trajectory before stabilizing and recently showing signs of an upward trend. By January 2024, it had surpassed its 2019 levels, shaping a rounding bottom pattern spanning from April 2019 to January 2024. The breakout in 2024 was accompanied by above average trading volume, and post-breakout, the stock maintained its upward trajectory. Presently, the stock's RSI indicates overbought conditions, potentially signalling a retest. According to technical analysis, sustained breakout momentum may drive the stock further upward.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• HUL considers separating its ice-cream business for potential sale, mirroring Unilever's strategy. Amid competition from Magnum, Amul, and Kwality, unique manufacturing and distribution approaches are crucial. The move aims to align with Unilever's focus on improving gross margins in similar segments.
  
  
• Bajaj Auto aims to revolutionize the entry-level motorcycle market by introducing the world's first CNG-run motorcycle, with plans to slash monthly fuel costs in half. Priced at a premium, these bi-fuel motorcycles will challenge the dominance of Hero MotoCorp. Leveraging its 8% share in the mileage-conscious entry-level segment and expertise in CNG three-wheelers, Bajaj aligns with government carbon reduction goals. Initial launch in Maharashtra and Gujarat precedes plans for expansion into other Indian regions and select international markets.
  
  
• RBI Governor Das reminds banks and NBFCs to handle public funds responsibly during MPC meeting. Recent actions against entities like Paytm, IIFL Finance, and JM Financial underscore regulatory scrutiny. S&P warns of higher capital costs due to stringent measures, with RBI emphasizing compliance and customer protection.

Stock name: ITC Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Following the market's rebound post-COVID, the stock has ascended. Between May 2023 and February 2024, it consolidated, forming a double top pattern on its weekly chart. February 2024 witnessed a breakout from this pattern, supported by significant trading volume and a bearish signal on the MACD indicator. Post breakout the stock has moved in the downward direction. Currently, it's undergoing a retest of the breakout level, with its RSI indicating a low level. Technical analysis suggests that if the retest concludes successfully and gains a downward momentum it may move further downwards.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Glaxosmithkline Pharmaceuticals Ltd.

Pattern: Head and shoulders pattern and restest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since December 2023, the stock has surged significantly before stabilizing, forming a head and shoulder pattern on its daily chart. On March 06, 2024, it broke out from this pattern with substantial trading volume, subsequently moving downwards. Currently, it's undergoing a retest of the breakout, with its RSI still indicating low levels. Technical analysis suggests that if the retest is successful and downward momentum ensues, further decline may be expected.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• PFC has disbursed a record interim dividend of ₹2,033 crore to the Indian government for the fiscal year 2023-24. This dividend, distributed in three instalments, marks the highest-ever interim dividend payment by PFC. The payments, totalling ₹3,630 crore, were confirmed by PTI, with the final instalment handed over to RK Singh, Minister of Power and New & Renewable Energy.
  
  
• Amit Kalyani, son of Bharat Forge's Chairman, is appointed Vice-Chairman and Joint MD. The decision was made during a board meeting on April 3, 2024. Kalyani's re-appointment as a whole-time director is for five years, starting from May 11, 2024.
• Vi plans to raise ₹20,000 crore through equity, with a board meeting on April 6 to discuss the preferential share issue. Shareholders' approval is secured, aiming to complete the fundraising by June, with promoters contributing around ₹2,000 crore. The move attracts interest from UK institutional investors, while Vi's 5G rollout investments are crucial to compete with rivals like Airtel and Jio.

Stock name: Orient Electric Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since January 2024, the stock has been on a downward trend. Between February and April 2024, it formed a double bottom pattern on its daily chart. A breakout from this pattern occurred on April 02, 2024, accompanied by substantial trading volume and a positive MACD indicator signal. Today, the stock is undergoing a strong retest of the breakout, with its RSI levels positioned favourably. According to technical analysis, if the stock maintain its breakout momentum, it may move further upwards.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Tata Communications Ltd.

Pattern: Cup and handle pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

The stock's general trajectory has been upward, notably from September 2023 to April 2024, during which it stabilized and formed a cup and handle pattern on its daily chart. A breakout from this pattern occurred on April 01, 2024, backed by average trading volume and a positive signal on its MACD indicator. Subsequently, the stock has continued its ascent. Technical analysis suggests that if the breakout momentum persists, the stock may advance further.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Adani Green Energy becomes India's first 'das hazari' in renewables, surpassing 10,000 MW portfolio with a recent 2,000 MW solar commission at Khavda. Operating now at 10,934 MW, the company is aiming for 45 GW by 2030, powering 5.8 million homes and reducing 21 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Chairman Gautam Adani plans a groundbreaking 30,000 MW project in Khavda, redefining global standards in renewable energy.
  
  
• UltraTech Cement, part of Aditya Birla Group, adds 5.4 mtpa capacity with new units in Chhattisgarh and Tamil Nadu, totalling 151.6 mtpa, surpassing US and Europe capacities. Chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla highlights rapid expansion, symbolizing India's global presence. Managing Director KC Jhanwar underscores commitment to sustainable growth with ongoing expansions and substantial capex.
  
  
• Reliance Jio's 5G user base reportedly surpasses 100 million by March's end, with Bharti Airtel trailing closely at around 75 million. Ookla, a network analytics firm, acknowledges Jio and Airtel as pivotal players driving 5G adoption in India, commending their rapid nationwide expansion efforts.

Stock name: HDFC Asset Management Company Ltd.

Pattern: Rounding bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

A rounding bottom pattern has emerged on the weekly chart of the stock spanning from November 2019 to February 2024. In February 2024, the stock experienced a breakout from this pattern, backed by average trading volume. Currently, the stock is undergoing a retest phase accompanied by a notably high RSI level. According to technical analysis, a successful rebound from this retest may propel the stock in an upward trajectory.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: BSE Ltd.

Pattern: Flag and pole pattern

Time frame: Weekly

Observation:

Between September and December 2023, the stock witnessed a significant surge followed by consolidation, forming a flag and pole pattern on its weekly chart until March 2024. Towards the end of March 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern, backed by slightly above-average trading volume. Subsequently, it has been trending upwards. Technical analysis suggests that if the stock sustains its breakout momentum, it may continue its upward trajectory.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• IREDA achieved its highest-ever annual loan sanctions and disbursements in FY23-24, totalling Rs 37,354 crore and Rs 25,089 crore, respectively, marking a 26.71% growth in its loan book. Notably, in Q4 FY23-24, loan sanctions more than doubled to Rs 23,796 crore, and disbursements rose by 13.98% to Rs 12,869 crore.
  
  
• Fincare Small Finance Bank merged with AU Small Finance Bank. The all-stock merger, approved by RBI on March 4, 2024, enhances AU SFB's presence in South India, bolstering its distribution network and customer base. With about 1 crore customers and a network of 2,350 touchpoints across 25 states, the merger aims for seamless integration and exceptional service delivery. Both banks have established a dedicated task force to ensure a smooth transition.
  
  
• Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd. (ABFRL) announced plans to consider demerging its Madura Fashion & Lifestyle business into a separate listed company. The decision, made during a Board of Directors meeting, aims to assess the strategic move's potential benefits. ABFRL intends to split its retail business to unlock valuation, focus on each entity, and raise fresh capital. The proposed demerger seeks to address stagnant valuation and reverse losses witnessed during FY24 due to increased investment in newer niche ventures.

Stock name: Indigo Paints Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

From March 2023, the stock witnessed substantial upward momentum, stabilizing from August 2023 and forming a double top pattern on its daily chart. On March 12, 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern with average trading volume, subsequently trending downward. Presently, the stock's RSI levels indicate oversold conditions, suggesting potential upward movement. However, technical analysis suggests that if the breakout momentum persists, the stock may continue its downward trajectory.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Go Fashion (India) Ltd.

Pattern: Double bottom pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since September 2023, the stock has trended downwards but stabilized between January 2024 and March 2024. Notably, a double bottom pattern emerged on its daily chart during this phase. The stock has seen a breakout on March 28, 2024, supported by slightly above average trading volume. Presently, the stock's RSI is at a high level which may lead to retest of the breakout level. According to technical analysis, sustained momentum may propel the stock further upward.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Panasonic and Indian Oil Corporation will form a joint venture to produce cylindrical lithium-ion batteries in India, catering to the growing demand in consumer electronics and electric vehicles. The collaboration aims to support India's transition to clean energy and aligns with IOCL's goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2046.
  
  
• HDFC Bank plans to sell its subsidiary, HDFC Education and Development Services Private Ltd, with a 100% stake divestment. The sale will utilize the Swiss challenge method, where an interested party's bid sets the benchmark for counter offers. HDFC Bank aims to finalize the purchaser through this process, followed by definitive documentation. HDFC Education currently serves three schools and offers various education services.
• NTPC, India's largest power utility, has permanently shut down its Barauni Thermal Power Station Stage-I, comprising two units of 110 MW each, as of March 31, 2024. Established in 1975, NTPC aims to reach a capacity of 130 GW by 2032. The Barauni Thermal Power Station, located in Bihar, was acquired by NTPC in 2018 and consists of Stage-I and Stage-II. Stage-II was dedicated to the nation in November 2021, featuring two units of 250 MW each.

In India, the fiscal year spans from April to March, indicating that this 31st of March signifies the conclusion of the fiscal year 2023-24 or financial year 2024. This year has been remarkable for the Indian stock market. As we all know, the market's performance isn't consistently linear, and it will have its ups and downs. However, to grasp the comprehensive outcome, it's important to broaden our perspective and evaluate the market's performance over an extended period. And what better way is there than to quantify the performance in numbers and percentages.

Let's delve into some of the most intriguing statistics of the market during the fiscal year. Observing the indices, you can see this year emerging as one of the strongest for the stock market. Throughout the financial year, the Nifty50 surged by approximately 5000 points, signaling an impressive upward trajectory of nearly 29%. This upward momentum extended beyond the large-cap index alone. Remarkably, both mid-cap and small-cap segments showcased even more robust performances. The Nifty Midcap 100 witnessed a surge of around 18000 points, reflecting a remarkable upward movement of approximately 60%, while the Nifty SML 100 experienced a staggering growth rate of about 70% over the year.

Merely gaining an overview of the broader market provides ample understanding of the significant growth witnessed this year. The primary drivers behind this surge encompass the following industries/sectors and few of the top gainers during the year:

Nifty Realty up by ~133%

Nifty PSU Bank up by ~89%

Nifty Auto up by ~75%

Nifty Energy up by ~71%

Tata Motors up by ~136%

Bajaj Auto up by ~135%

Adani Ports up by ~112%

Hero Motocorp up by ~101%

However, amidst this overall positive market trend, what truly stands out are the PSU stocks. To gain insight, let's consider a few notable performers in this sector:

IRFC up by ~435%

REC up by ~291%

BHEL up by ~247%

NBCC up by 235%

Along with the regular market, it's essential to underscore the remarkable success witnessed in the IPO segment. With over 75 IPOs introduced throughout the year, a significant portion of them yielding substantial listing gains, the IPO market segment garnered considerable attention. Also, November 2023 marked a notable milestone with the IPO listing of Tata Technologies, representing the first IPO from the Tata group in nearly two decades. The market has also received this IPO with much enthusiasm. It has emerged as one of the top performers, boasting listing gains of approximately 163%.

Certainly, there were companies that had underperformed throughout the year, with surprising instances such as HDFC Bank being notable examples. Nonetheless, overall, the markets have witnessed a significant upward movement over the year.

This could be attributed to various factors. The market has witnessed a robust rise in retail inflows, with domestic mutual funds sustaining a net buyer position for 36 consecutive months. This trend has been facilitated by a notable surge in SIPs, breaking multiple record highs over the past 11 months. Additionally, there has been an uptick in Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) investments. Furthermore, factors such as India's inclusion in global bond indices and its stable and favourable macroeconomic outlook have also played a role.

With this huge year as a base, it would be very interesting to see how the coming year pans out. There are multiple factors that should be given attention though. This includes crude prices, interest rate policies and potential rate cuts, electoral outcomes, and the recent regulatory interventions from apex organizations such as SEBI and RBI, all of which may influence the market dynamics moving forward. With all of these in the pot, it is bound to make the journey ahead filled with excitement and thrill. Let us hope that we witness similarly favourable years in the times ahead.

If you want to understand the macro elements of the market and want to analyse how it affects to the markets along with other fundamental aspects, make sure to check out my course on Fundamental Analysis. Until next time!

Stock name: Gujarat Fluorochemicals Ltd.

Pattern: Double top pattern

Time frame: Daily

Observation:

Since November 2023, the stock has experienced significant upward momentum. Beginning January 2024, it stabilized and exhibited a double top pattern on its daily chart. On March 12, 2024, the stock broke out from this pattern, accompanied by average trading volume. Following the breakout, the stock has been trending downward with relatively low levels of RSI. According to technical analysis, if the breakout momentum persists the stock may see continued downward movement.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

Stock name: Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.

Pattern: Rounding bottom pattern and retest

Time frame: Monthly

Observation:

After reaching its previous all-time high in 2017, the stock experienced a subsequent decline. Recently, it managed to surpass its previous all-time high in February 2024. This has led to the formation of a rounding bottom pattern on its weekly chart spanning from September 2017 to February 2024. February 2024 witnessed a breakout from this pattern accompanied by significant trading volume. Presently, the stock is undergoing a robust retest of the breakout while the RSI indicates overbought levels. According to technical analysis, the stock might see further cooling in RSI levels. However, if the stock successfully rebounds from the retest, it could potentially continue its upward trajectory.

You may add this to your watch list to understand further price action.

Disclaimer: This analysis is purely for educational purpose and does not contain any recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before taking any financial decision.

News for the day:

• Adani Enterprises launches into metal industry with Mundra copper unit, investing $1.2 billion. Initial phase establishes 0.5 MTPA smelter, with plans for expansion to become world's largest. This project will generate employment and meet rising demand for copper driven by renewables and EVs. The subsidiary will also diversify into copper tubes for air conditioning and refrigeration.
  
  
• Varun Beverages Ltd has completed the acquisition of South Africa's BevCo and subsidiaries, expanding its presence in Africa's largest soft drinks market. VBL issued a ZAR 1,500 million guarantee for credit facilities. BevCo, holding franchise rights from PepsiCo, adds to VBL's portfolio and manufacturing capabilities. South Africa's soft drinks market growth aligns with VBL's expansion strategy.
  
  
• Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd (BHEL) secures a Rs 4,000 crore order from Adani Power for the Raigarh Phase-II Thermal Power Plant in Chhattisgarh. The project involves setting up 1,600 MW capacity with Unit-1 delivery in 31 months and Unit-2 in 35 months. BHEL will manufacture key components at its Trichy and Haridwar plants, enhancing its presence in the power sector.